SAO PAULO, Brazil (DTN) -- With soybeans looking handsome across most of Brazil's highlands and plains, farmers are daring to hope that the 2011-12 crop will match the bumper harvests of the last two years.

But analysts still say chances are the current Brazilian crop won't top last season's record output, despite the addition of over one million extra acres.

That's because farmers can't count on a repeat of the excellent yields registered last year, especially as new acreage is overwhelmingly on recently-converted pasture and scrub that initially registers poor yields.

"Last year's yields were well above the curve. You can't expect that every year," said Anderson Galvao Gomes of Celeres, a local grains consultancy.

Last year, Brazil produced 75.3 million metric tons (2.77 billion bushels) of soybeans, according to the Agriculture Ministry.

Celeres forecasts a 2011-12 crop of 75.5 mmt, but Gomes adds that he is more likely to lower his forecast than raise it.

"If there are weather problems during the crucial December-January period, then the end number could be much lower," he said.

Indeed, the Agriculture Ministry currently forecasts a crop of 71.5 mmt to 73.0 mmt and other notable local private analysts peg the crop between 73.5 mmt and 75.0 mmt.

The truth is it's really too early to forecast yields. While the first beans were planted two months ago in Mato Grosso, the majority of soybeans are still in very early stages of development, notes Fernando Muraro of AgRural, a grains consultancy that forecasts 73.6 mmt for the crop.

After a slow start, ample showers in October allowed for very quick planting and thus the majority of the 2011-12 crop will be ready for harvest early.

"What with planting running ahead of schedule, we will have a very good idea about the size of the crop by the second half of January," said Muraro.

Up until now, soybeans have enjoyed excellent conditions with a wet October giving way to a sunnier November across many parts of the grain belt.

"I would give nine out of 10 for soybean crop conditions so far," said Muraro.

There have, however, been isolated problems, specifically in southern Mato Grosso, Goias and northern Minas Gerais where rain has been spotty since Oct. 15.

Some short-cycle beans may have been affected by dry spells, which lasted between 15 and 20 days depending on the region.

"Twenty days without rain is a long time for beans with a 100- to 105-day growing cycle," said Joao Carlos Diel, who farms 7,500 acres in southern Mato Grosso.

But, generally, it is still far too early to talk about losses in these regions, especially after they received heavy showers over the last week and have forecasts for further rains.

The irregular early season rain pattern is typical of years in which the La Nina weather phenomenon is active.

This activity is a concern for farmers in the south as La Nina also typically brings dry spells there.

"The biggest weather risk in this season isn't drought in the center-west -- it always rains there eventually -- it is a dry December and January in the south," said AgRural's Muraro.

Brazil will plant approximately 61.3 million acres of soybeans this season, around 2% higher than this year before.

In the south, farmers have converted marginal soybean land to corn because of the superior returns that the grain promises. However, area will still grow due to degraded pasture conversion in the Cerrado regions.

Alastair Stewart can be reached at alastair.stewart@telventdtn.com

(CZ/AG)

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