OMAHA (DTN) -- Continued drought stress is likely in Southern Plains crop and livestock areas as conditions point to the return of La Nina, apparent from Pacific Ocean temperatures and barometric pressure measurements.

If this indeed develops, the Southern Plains -- which already have endured historic drought conditions -- could be in for a second straight year of drought.

Such a development is not uncommon. "Many of Texas's bad droughts do coincide with multi-year La Ninas, such as in 1949 through 1951, and 1954 through 1957," said USDA ag meteorologist Brad Rippey. "It's not uncommon for multi-year La Ninas, and for multi-year droughts driven by La Nina."

La Nina describes a pattern of below-normal temperatures in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean, and an affiliated atmospheric pattern that promotes drier conditions in the central U.S. during the fall season.

La Nina is not expected to be as strong as it was in 2010-11; most outlooks call for it to be weak to moderate. Still, "Texas and the Southern Plains on into the southwest and southeast should be concerned about a second year of La Nina, which would amplify existing drought conditions," Rippey said. "There is high potential for winter wheat failure and potential failure of summer crops if this happens."

Rippey's views are shared by Telvent DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Mike Palmerino. Palmerino's eastern Pacific temperature data show a trend toward cooling waters in the Pacific -- a sign of La Nina developing.

"You have to be concerned," Palmerino said. "We've seen some recent showers, but you can't see those occurrences as doing much more than settling the dust. Also, in terms of climatology, it is unlikely that we will break this dry pattern going into late fall and winter."

BIGGEST IMPACT ON WHEAT

At this point in the season, the biggest impact of the continued dryness is in Southern Plains wheat planting, where both Oklahoma and Texas have recorded less than half their typical rates so far. As of Sept. 25, the Oklahoma wheat planting rate stood at just 11%; average is 31% planted. And, In Texas, only 14% of the wheat crop was planted, compared with an average of 34%.

"It's definitely not a typical year for wheat," said Steelee Fischbacher, communications director with the Texas Wheat Producers Board and Association in Amarillo. "Soil moisture is significantly low, and that has producers delaying planting, waiting for rain."

Fischbacher noted that the planting deadline for crop insurance coverage on winter wheat in Texas is mid-November. "It (crop insurance) definitely makes it a more comfortable decision" to think about planting wheat in such a dry scenario, she said. "It would make it harder if there was not a crop insurance back-up. But if wheat is your primary crop, it's hard to just take the year off."

Farther north, Oklahoma's wheat areas have earliest planting deadlines of Nov. 1, and as late as Nov. 30, for crop insurance purposes. Oklahoma Wheat Growers Association Executive Director Tim Bartram believes producers will go right up to their deadlines on planting. "If the wheat is in by Thanksgiving weekend, we still have a realistic shot at a crop," he said.

However, one feature of the Southern Plains wheat season has already come and gone -- the planting of wheat for livestock grazing. "Wheat needed to be planted by mid-September for enough growth for pasture, and we didn't see that this year," said Oklahoma State University livestock economist Derrell Peel.

This specter of a multi-year drought confirms an adage that Rippey holds to when he considers the effect of La Nina: "Texas and La Nina are not good buddies by any stretch," Rippey said.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@telventdtn.com

(ES/AG)

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