AFBF Economist on Poultry: “Avian influenza continues to be a problem”

Economists break down High-Path Avian Flu’s continued impact on the poultry sector heading into the 2024 holiday season.

High-Path Avian Influenza (HPAI) has been detected in a domestic flock of birds in Hawaii, marking the first case in the state since the outbreak began in 2022.

The Hawaii Department of Health confirmed the cases, sharing that the risk of transmission to Hawaiian residents is low but that people should still avoid contact with sick or dead birds.

Six more HPAI cases in humans were also confirmed on the West Coast. Public health officials say the virus has been detected in five California farm workers and one in Oregon. This marks the first human infection in Oregon, raising the U.S. total to 52 human cases this year. Nearly half of those are in California.

So far, infected people have had mild symptoms which have responded to treatment.

Since the outbreak began two years ago, poultry producers have been hardest hit. More than 100 million birds have been impacted, and the American Farm Bureau says that turkeys and egg layers have taken the brunt of it.

According to AFBF Economist Bernt Nelson:

“Avian influenza continues to be a problem. We’ve had 3.5 million birds affected this October. Egg layers and turkeys are still the greatest impacted by this. What broiler flocks tend to benefit from being tucked away a little bit from the Central and Pacific flyways. We’ve had 74 million egg layers affected by this overall, and this has resulted in some volatility in egg prices. If we look at turkeys, we’ve had over 14 million turkeys affected by the virus. So, production for turkeys is down about 6% from last year.”
Bernt Nelson, AFBF Economist

That six percent production decline, combined with a reduction in the number of whole turkeys in cold storage, may have some worried about the price they will pay for their Thanksgiving bird.

AgriLife Extension Economist David Anderson does not see any trends suggesting these factors will cause a dramatic rise in prices. However, he does warn that you could pay higher prices the longer you wait to buy your bird.

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