Farm Income Downturn Intensifies As Policy Decisions Near

Farm Bureau economist John Newton says farm income has declined every quarter for three years.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Farmers are facing a third straight year of declining economic conditions as crop prices remain below breakeven and fertilizer and fuel costs add pressure. American Farm Bureau Federation economist John Newton says the downturn has now reached 12 consecutive quarters.

Farm production expenses have increased by $120 billion, or 34 percent, since 2020 and are approaching $500 billion annually. Newton reports crop prices remain 11 to nearly 40 percent below recent highs, eroding working capital and increasing borrowing needs.

The Kansas City Federal Reserve’s farm income index fell to 66 in the first quarter. Loan demand is near record levels, while weak farm equipment sales show producers are delaying major purchases as cash flow tightens.

Farmland values remain a source of balance-sheet strength, providing collateral and limiting broader financial stress. However, land equity does not automatically provide the operating cash needed to cover current production costs.

Newton says Senate action on year-round E15, the Farm Bill, and possible economic assistance could provide additional support for farm income, commodity demand, and rural businesses.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Farmers face a deepening cost-price squeeze, while pending policy decisions could affect cash flow and market opportunities.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Estimates for 2026 harvested crops remain early. Corn and sorghum are below their reference prices, while wheat and soybeans are above them.
Markets Analysts and Livestock Experts Say Screwworm Adds Costs for Producers, Not Food Safety Risks
Data centers will continue expanding, but local decisions will determine whether that growth protects agricultural water access or adds stress to already vulnerable production regions.
A long-running poultry waste lawsuit remains unresolved after a federal judge rejected proposed settlements and appeals followed.
Ethanol, sorghum, dairy, and cotton provide additional export support as major commodity trade markets remain uneven.
Consumers are watching affordability, but projected beef demand remains strong enough to sustain market attention.