Global Oilseed Production Forecast to Reach Record Levels in 2026/27

USDA says growing soybean output and expanding biofuel demand are helping drive the increase.

Soybean plants growing in a field backlit by the sun

bobex73 - stock.adobe.com

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD News) — Global oilseed production is projected to reach a record level during the 2026/27 marketing year as soybean, sunflowerseed, rapeseed and peanut production all increase.

USDA’s Economic Research Service forecasts total global oilseed production at 718.1 million metric tons, up nearly 20 million metric tons from the previous year.

Soybeans are expected to account for most of the increase, with global production projected at a record 441.5 million metric tons.

Economic Research Service (ERS) says larger soybean crops are expected in Brazil, the United States, Argentina and several other major producing countries.

At the same time, global oilseed crush is forecast at 549.8 million metric tons, driven by rising demand for livestock feed, aquaculture production and vegetable oils used in both food and industrial products.

USDA says biofuels continue playing a major role in demand growth, particularly in countries like Indonesia, Brazil and the United States.

Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil and sunflowerseed oil all remain key components of the global outlook.

Brazil’s soybean crop is projected to reach a record 186 million metric tons, with the country expected to account for 62 percent of global soybean exports.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Record oilseed production may expand supply, but crush and biofuel demand remain major supports for soybean and vegetable oil markets.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Market analyst and friend of the show, Shawn Hackett, says Brazil’s shifting use of crops for biofuel production is a significant factor.
Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association (ASA), shares his reaction to news of soybean sales to China, which is considered both “welcome news” and a return to near-normal trade relations.
Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to discuss the implications for farmers.
Chris Bliley with Growth Energy discusses ongoing concerns about U.S. ethanol exports and the expansion of market access promised under the Phase One deal between the U.S. and China.
“It does not extinguish right away here — in any sort of sense — the real profitability concerns and people’s ability to pay bills and get to the other side of this in the very short term. This is where the skepticism builds.”

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Smaller U.S. production and steady global demand could provide better pricing opportunities in 2026.
Higher yields are cushioning lower acreage, but reduced production could support firmer potato prices into 2026.
Producers across the country balanced winter weather disruptions, shifting export demand, and tightening margins as year-end decisions come into focus.
Reviewing risk management now can help dairy and livestock producers enter 2026 with clearer margins and fewer surprises.
Stronger rail movement and lower fuel prices are easing logistics, even as export pace and river conditions remain uneven.
Small, locally focused wineries are finding resilience through direct sales and regional loyalty rather than scale alone.