WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — USDA’s Economic Research Service says the global wheat outlook is tightening as production falls from last year’s record. World wheat production for 2026/27 is forecast to be down by 24.8 million metric tons, though it remains the second-highest on record.
The biggest production decline is in the United States, where drought reduced area and yields. ERS says other major exporters are also lower, including the European Union, Argentina, Russia, Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.
Trade is expected to contract because exporters have smaller supplies and several importing countries have larger crops. North Africa and the Middle East are seeing better production, with Morocco, Turkey, Iran, and Egypt expected to import less.
Global wheat consumption is also shifting. Feed and residual use are forecast to decline, while food, seed, and industrial use are forecast to grow, driven by India’s larger crop and population.
Ending stocks are projected to decline to 275 million metric tons, with major exporters’ stocks tightening most sharply.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Smaller exporter crops and lower global stocks could keep wheat markets sensitive to weather, trade, and shifts in demand.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
China’s grain expansion model may be hitting its limit. Lower prices, high rents, and policy fatigue threaten future output — with ripple effects across global feed and oilseed markets.
November 02, 2025 05:06 AM
·
U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD) shares his outlook on the developing U.S.-China Trade agreement, and the ongoing impact of the federal government shutdown—now stretching past four weeks—on rural communities and producers.
October 31, 2025 01:35 PM
·
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to discuss what the Carney-Xi meeting could mean for Canadian producers.
October 31, 2025 01:29 PM
·
Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association (ASA), shares his reaction to news of soybean sales to China, which is considered both “welcome news” and a return to near-normal trade relations.
October 31, 2025 12:26 PM
·
Farm Bureau Economist Faith Parum discusses key outcomes from the U.S.-China trade agreement and the benefits of expanding trade across Southeast Asia.
October 30, 2025 03:25 PM
·
Chris Bliley with Growth Energy discusses ongoing concerns about U.S. ethanol exports and the expansion of market access promised under the Phase One deal between the U.S. and China.
October 30, 2025 02:30 PM
·
