WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — USDA’s Economic Research Service says the global wheat outlook is tightening as production falls from last year’s record. World wheat production for 2026/27 is forecast to be down by 24.8 million metric tons, though it remains the second-highest on record.
The biggest production decline is in the United States, where drought reduced area and yields. ERS says other major exporters are also lower, including the European Union, Argentina, Russia, Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.
Trade is expected to contract because exporters have smaller supplies and several importing countries have larger crops. North Africa and the Middle East are seeing better production, with Morocco, Turkey, Iran, and Egypt expected to import less.
Global wheat consumption is also shifting. Feed and residual use are forecast to decline, while food, seed, and industrial use are forecast to grow, driven by India’s larger crop and population.
Ending stocks are projected to decline to 275 million metric tons, with major exporters’ stocks tightening most sharply.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Smaller exporter crops and lower global stocks could keep wheat markets sensitive to weather, trade, and shifts in demand.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Sen. Roger Marshall explains which types of beef are imported into the United States, how there’s room for new imports, and logical reasons for current high prices.
October 23, 2025 12:10 PM
·
Record Australian exports and rising U.S. imports reflect continued tight domestic cattle supplies — a reminder that herd recovery remains key to balancing future beef prices.
October 23, 2025 11:56 AM
·
Australia’s expanding harvest and global oversupply are keeping wheat and barley prices capped, though canola markets may hold firmer on shifting oilseed demand.
October 23, 2025 10:17 AM
·
Bioethanol continues to gain ground as the bridge fuel connecting agriculture, aviation, and maritime industries in the global shift toward lower-carbon energy.
October 23, 2025 10:14 AM
·
Expanding bioethanol use strengthens rural economies, supports farm markets, and positions U.S. agriculture at the center of global low-carbon trade.
October 23, 2025 10:10 AM
·
Lyndsey Smith with RealAg Radio discusses how global trade dynamics could shape the future of Canada’s pulse exports.
October 22, 2025 03:08 PM
·
