A "Challenging Season" Comes Into View

A "Challenging Season" Comes Into View

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A wet cornfield with a poor crop. A wet cornfield with a poor crop.

August 20, 2019

Data collected from DTN's 2019 Digital Yield Tour, compiled alongside real-time yield maps courtesy of Gro Intelligence, are painting a less than rosy picture when it comes to anticipated corn and soybean yields across the midwest.

DTN/Gro Intelligence forecast a national average corn yield of 163.2 bushels per acre (bpa), which is 6.3 bpa lower than USDA's August forecast. For soybeans, DTN/Gro Intelligence forecasts a national yield average of 44.2 bpa, which is 4.3 bpa lower than USDA.

"It's been a difficult growing season from the beginning," Gro Intelligence Senior Vice President of Agribusiness James Heneghan said. "Accounting for yield potential this season is going to be a challenge for anyone, whether they're using a survey or a satellite-based yield model. These are not great yields by the last couple of years' standards, but they're not disaster yields like 2012."

DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman commented, "Friday's national corn yield estimate of 163.2 bpa suggests USDA may find less crops in September when it ventures into actual fields. If nothing else, the states needing clarification have clearly been identified as Missouri, South Dakota and Illinois-through-Ohio."

With regard to soybeans, Hultman says that the 44.2 bpa forecast referenced above suggests that total production will be closer to 3.4 billion bushels. "If true, this year's soybean crop will be down roughly 1.1 bb from 2018 and offers significant relief to burdensome ending soybean stocks at a time when trade with China is not going well," he went on to say. 

Katie Dehlinger, Farm Business Editor for DTN, recently joined us on "Market Day report" to discuss further implications of the Tour. Watch the clip above for her insights.

(Source: Progressive Farmer, Powered by DTN – dtnpf.com)

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