FARGO, N.D. (RFD NEWS) — Researchers at North Dakota State University say U.S. agricultural exporters have lost an estimated $14.9 billion in sales to China due to tariffs, highlighting the long-term impact trade tensions have had across farm country in a recent study.
According to the study (PDF Version), soybeans accounted for nearly half of those losses at approximately $6.8 billion. Beef and cotton exports each lost roughly $1 billion in sales, while corn exporters saw losses exceeding $330 million.
Researchers noted the study specifically measured export losses tied directly to tariffs and did not include other market factors, such as China shifting purchases away from the United States for broader strategic reasons.
Markets Looking for Follow-Through After China Trade Talks
Analysts have continued monitoring export markets closely since President Trump returned from Beijing after securing billions of dollars in new agricultural trade commitments. However, traders say markets are still waiting for additional follow-through announcements that could provide stronger momentum for grain prices.
Brian Hoops with Midwest Market Solutions says many producers are already looking at current price levels as attractive hedging opportunities.
“I think producers are looking at December corn at $5, November soybeans at $12,” Hoops told RFD News. “And looking at that — those are attractive prices that they want to be hedged at, and rightfully so.”
Hoops says favorable growing conditions and improving weather forecasts are also limiting bullish enthusiasm in the market.
“You look at growing conditions, you look at the weather forecast — it all looks pretty favorable for producing a sizable corn and soybean crop here in the late stages of May,” Hoops continues, adding that weather forecasts heading into Memorial Day are calling for moisture and moderate temperatures, with no major threats from heat or dryness in the near term.
Favorable Weather Could Limit Market Rally
Despite renewed optimism surrounding trade discussions with China, Hoops says markets still need a catalyst to spark another sustained rally.
“We need something to spark another rally,” Hoops says. “It could be weather — maybe into the month of June. It could be more news coming out of China.”
For now, traders remain focused on rapid planting progress, with roughly two-thirds of both the corn and soybean crops already planted nationwide.
Hoops says crops are emerging faster than normal this season, but warned that extended periods of favorable weather can sometimes remove risk premium from grain markets and pressure prices lower.
Corey Rosenbusch with The Fertilizer Institute joined us to discuss supply chain disruptions and what farmers should watch as global tensions impact fertilizer markets.
