NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD News) —U.S. soybean oil demand is expected to climb in 2026/27 as federal biofuel policy pushes biomass-based diesel production higher. USDA’s Economic Research Service says record Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027 are expected to increase demand for biofuel feedstocks.
The 45Z tax credit also changes the feedstock picture. ERS says the credit now limits eligibility to fuel produced in the United States with feedstocks sourced from North America and removes indirect land-use change from carbon score calculations.
Soybean oil should benefit from that change. USDA forecasts soybean oil use for biomass-based diesel production at 17.8 billion pounds in 2026/27, up 3.6 billion pounds from 2025/26. Canola oil use is also expected to grow.
Renewable diesel capacity has expanded sharply, rising from 900 million gallons in January 2021 to 5 billion gallons in December 2025. That growth increases competition for vegetable oils, animal fats, and used cooking oil.
ERS projects Central Illinois soybean oil prices at 70 cents per pound, up from 63 cents.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Stronger biofuel policy support could lift soybean oil demand and help maintain crush margins in soybean markets.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Support policies that keep U.S. biofuels at the table—marine demand could materially lift corn grind, crush margins, and rural jobs.
October 15, 2025 03:47 PM
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China is not one of our top suppliers of cooking oil, according to USDA ERS data, but does export a lot of used cooking oil to the U.S. for biofuel production.
October 15, 2025 12:13 PM
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Expect choppier basis and wider bids — hedge earlier, keep logistics flexible, and watch Argentina and India headlines for near-term opportunities.
October 14, 2025 12:37 PM
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President Trump is expected to press Argentina to take a tougher stance on China in exchange for political and economic support.
October 14, 2025 11:12 AM
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Treat storage as risk management and logistics, and budget to break even since export growth is unlikely to absorb bigger U.S. corn and soybean crops.
October 13, 2025 04:34 PM
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President Trump has long supported a direct line from Alberta’s oil fields to the Midwest.
October 13, 2025 01:21 PM
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