Buying Breathing Room: NCBA predicts choppy waters ahead of passing a big, beautiful tax bill

Passing one “big, beautiful tax bill” is dominating policy talks in Washington, DC.

NCBA’s Ethan Lane says that goal is dividing Congress, making things challenging for the Speaker of the House.

According to Lane, “We’re going to see this week whether he can navigate those choppy waters and get enough of his conference on board to advance this. You know, that’s the reason for using a reconciliation bill to do this, is that it is a simple majority vote. It lowers the threshold, it makes it easier to get to ‘yes’ on this, not just in the House but in the Senate eventually as well. But yeah, those tight margins are still there. They’re not going anywhere, and it does tend to give those holdouts the impression that they hold a lot of power in this process.”

Because of that, Lane says he would not be surprised to see a few false starts.

He says that botes could fall apart this week, meaning lawmakers will return to Congress after the Easter recess and try again.
Lane says that NCBA is advocating to make the tax cuts permanent.

“If you look at the cuts on their own, if you look at the extension of those provisions, it’s about a $4 trillion price tag. So the question then is, is that continued baseline spending, right? Or is that new spending? Because we’re extending them. Well, our argument and others is that it’s a continuation of baseline spending because we’ve been operating under that since 2018. Senate Parliamentarian agrees, and that’s sort of the format they’re using moving into this, but, you know, at this point, what we’re looking at is buying another five years of breathing room on this.”

Lane says that he believes that the earlier this resolution takes place, the better to prove consistency and reliability in the supply chain.
He says that unknowns are causing the biggest problems for the economy.

Related Stories
Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.
Read the full press release published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
A look at the legislative year ahead as lawmakers return to Washington with a slate of trade concerns to tackle in 2026—from new Chinese tariffs on beef imports to the USMCA review this summer.
Farmer Bridge Assistance payments provide immediate balance-sheet support heading into 2026, but remain a short-term bridge rather than a substitute for long-term market recovery.
The New Year is here, but in Oregon, some ranchers and livestock producers are still trying to recover from record wildfires back in 2024.