The U.S. cattle herd is shrinking, boosting prices for producers, but causing concerns down the line.
Oklahoma state ag economist, Dr. Darrell Peel, says that the beef industry has been cyclical for 150 years, but that pattern may be changing in 2025.
“If you’re following it at all, you know that we’ve got record-high cattle prices across the board for all kinds of cattle. We’ve got record-high beef prices at the wholesale and retail levels, and so there’s lots of supply-driven fundamentals here that are really driving the market. We’ve had an incredible beef demand to match that, which is why we can maintain these record-high prices at the consumer level, but there’s also lots of challenges along the way.”
Those challenges, Dr. Peel says, start to show up at the processor level.
“Everybody is really caught in this, in this challenging, sort of adverse, buy-sell margin because of the supply-driven price increases from the bottom up in terms of animal production. And so, that’s the environment that everybody’s in right now, and you know, again, without getting into too much of the detail, the bottom line is it’s going to be a while— this is not going to be a fast process.”
With herd expansion yet to really begin, he predicts that we will stay in a high price environment for the rest of the decade.
Federal nutrition policy is signaling a stronger demand for whole foods produced by U.S. farmers and ranchers. Consumer-facing guidance favors animal protein, but institutional demand may change little under existing saturated fat limits.
January 08, 2026 11:42 AM
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Retail pricing confirms tight cattle supplies and supports continued leverage for producers, reinforcing the need for disciplined risk management.
January 07, 2026 06:00 PM
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Dr. Rosslyn Biggs with the Oklahoma State University Center for Rural Veterinary Medicine shares insight into biosecurity, preparedness, and animal health concerns facing livestock producers as New World screwworm outbreaks continue in Mexico.
January 07, 2026 12:57 PM
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Seasonal boxed beef softness does not change the tight-supply outlook — leverage remains closer to the farm gate heading into 2026.
January 07, 2026 06:00 AM
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Sen. Deb Fischer reintroduces the HAULS Act to update hours-of-service exemptions and definitions affecting livestock and agricultural haulers. She joins us on Market Day Report to share more about her proposed legislation.
January 06, 2026 01:28 PM
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The U.S. Meat Export Federation plans to expand its global market presence in the New Year and says it is focusing its appeal on the growing middle class worldwide.
January 06, 2026 12:21 PM
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