Ethanol Blend Rate Breaks Ceiling as E15 Expands

Higher ethanol blend rates translate directly into stronger, more durable corn demand if regulatory momentum holds.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol demand reached a new milestone in October, as ethanol accounted for 11.06 percent of the nation’s gasoline supply — the first monthly blend rate above 11 percent on record, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The record underscores growing fuel demand for ethanol and challenges long-standing assumptions that blending cannot exceed 10 percent.

The Renewable Fuels Association says expanded availability of E15 and flex fuels such as E85 is driving the increase. The 12-month average blend rate also reached a record 10.48 percent in October, signaling sustained growth rather than a one-month anomaly. Iowa continues to lead adoption, with E15 representing roughly 25 percent of gasoline sales in November — nearly double early-2025 levels — while California’s recent E15 approval opens a major new market.

RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper credits summer emergency fuel waivers and lower pump prices for accelerating adoption, while emphasizing the need for permanent year-round E15 approval and strong EPA renewable fuel standards. At an 11 percent blend rate, annual ethanol use would reach roughly 15 billion gallons.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Higher ethanol blend rates translate directly into stronger, more durable corn demand if regulatory momentum holds.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Bigger-than-expected corn and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, while soybean figures were neutral. Farmers may face additional price pressure as harvest accelerates.
Higher domestic rail tariffs and mixed capacity shifts will influence grain movement this harvest. Strong corn exports provide momentum, but logistics costs remain a critical factor.
Gov. Gavin Newsom has until October 12 to sign a bill passed by the California state legislature allowing E15 sales.
The Final Grain Stocks Report may be the last key figures we see if a government shutdown halts future updates.
Strong corn exports are anchoring U.S. trade, while soybean sales remain steady, but shipments lag.
Michigan corn farmer and NCGA Vice President-Elect Matt Frostic will lead the task force. He joined us on Thursday to share his insights on the escalating corn crisis.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.
Strong ethanol production and export trends continue to support corn demand despite seasonal fuel consumption softness.
Cotton demand depends on demonstrating performance and reliability buyers can rely on, not messaging alone.
Shaun Haney, Host of RealAg Radio on Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147, joined us with his 2026 cattle market outlook and insights on beef prices.
Farmer Bridge Assistance payments provide immediate balance-sheet support heading into 2026, but remain a short-term bridge rather than a substitute for long-term market recovery.
High ownership does not always translate into high output, underscoring the importance of structural differences in understanding state-level farm performance.