Mike Steenhoek with the Soy Transportation Coalition discusses supply chain disruptions, rising costs, and the potential impact on agriculture as farmers navigate ongoing global uncertainty.
Fertilizer still consumes an unusually large share of crop value.
President Donald Trump signed an executive order this week to accelerate domestic production of phosphorus and glyphosate, signaling that farm input availability is now treated as a national security risk.
Fuel costs ease over the long term, but fertilizer energy remains volatile.
Lower oil prices may trim input costs but pressure biofuel demand.
Cold-driven spikes in gas prices can quickly raise fertilizer and energy costs.
Nitrogen and phosphate markets are tightening ahead of spring, keeping fertilizer costs elevated while crop prices lag.
Economists are also closely watching how policy decisions in Washington could influence markets moving forward. Analysts say deferred futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat suggest markets are operating near break-even levels, not at prices that would encourage expanded production.
The federal government’s status is far from the only factor moving the markets on Friday. Two critical reports released today on producer inflation and the status of the U.S. cattle herd are also top of mind.
Corn growers are turning to ethanol, E15 expansion, and export markets to help absorb record supplies and stabilize prices. Farm leaders discuss low-carbon ethanol demand, flex-fuel vehicle challenges, input costs, and the role of USMCA as producers look for market relief in the year ahead.
The “Wild, Wild West” of Taxes
Champions of Rural America: Iowa Congressman Outlines ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Benefits for Agriculture
Rep. Randy Feenstra, R-IA, details how the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” Act (OBBBA) supports farmers, biofuels, and rural communities with tax breaks, crop insurance relief, and ag infrastructure.
Transportation access, legal disputes, and fertilizer freight costs will directly influence input pricing and grain movement in 2026.
Fertilizer markets face uncertainty after President Trump raised the possibility of tariffs on Canadian imports, with analysts warning of supply and pricing risks. Josh Linville with StoneX provides a fertilizer industry outlook.
Canadian tariffs would raise costs for potash, ammonia, and UAN, increasing spring fertilizer risk.
Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.
Removing the 40% duty sharply lowers U.S. beef import costs on beef, coffee, fertilizer and fruit, and restores Brazil’s competitiveness during a period of tight domestic supply.
Only properly documented, unexhausted fertilizer applied by prior owners may qualify for Section 180 expensing; broader nutrient-based claims carry significant legal and tax risk.
Urea and phosphate see the biggest price relief from tariff exemptions, but nitrogen markets remain tight, and spring demand will still dictate pricing momentum.
Stagger buys and diversifies fertilizer sources — watch CBAM, India’s tenders, and Brazil’s import pace to time urea, phosphate, and potash purchases.
Recognizing phosphorus and potash as critical minerals underscores their importance in crop production and food security, providing producers with an added layer of risk protection.
Global nitrogen and phosphate prices remain high despite improved supply fundamentals, with limited Chinese exports and stronger fall applications tightening availability.