Despite its continuously shrinking cattle herd, U.S. beef production is running a bit higher than expected this year. It has many worried about what is to come.
According to USDA’s Outlook Chairman, Mark Jekanowski, “We raised our steer price forecast for both 2024 and 2025 this month. For 2024, we have a price forecast of $186.68 per hundred weight. We expect that to strengthen further into 2025 with even tighter supplies. So, our current forecast for 2025 is $188 per hundred weight. That would be up $1.32 per hundred weight year-over-year.”
Jekanowski says that outlook is largely dependent on the decisions cattle producers have made over the last three years and are even making now.
“We’re not retaining many heifers to grow the herd. We keep, you know, pulling those cattle in to feed lots to produce beef today instead of beef months and years ahead,” he adds.
Some analysts believe next year’s prices could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back so to speak, finally triggering producers to retain more heifers for herd expansion.
R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard joins Market Day Report for his insight on the USDA’s plan to strengthen the U.S. beef industry.
October 24, 2025 01:28 PM
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Until a phased reopening is inked, plan for tighter feeder availability, firmer basis near border yards, and continued reliance on domestic and Canadian sources.
October 24, 2025 11:42 AM
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RFD-TV Markets Expert Tony St. James breaks down the USDA’s newly unveiled plan to rebuild the US beef herd and the industry’s spectrum of responses to it.
October 23, 2025 03:06 PM
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American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Bernt Nelson provides an updated outlook on the current U.S. cattle market.
October 23, 2025 02:20 PM
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Sen. Roger Marshall explains which types of beef are imported into the United States, how there’s room for new imports, and logical reasons for current high prices.
October 23, 2025 12:10 PM
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Record Australian exports and rising U.S. imports reflect continued tight domestic cattle supplies — a reminder that herd recovery remains key to balancing future beef prices.
October 23, 2025 11:56 AM
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