Despite its continuously shrinking cattle herd, U.S. beef production is running a bit higher than expected this year. It has many worried about what is to come.
According to USDA’s Outlook Chairman, Mark Jekanowski, “We raised our steer price forecast for both 2024 and 2025 this month. For 2024, we have a price forecast of $186.68 per hundred weight. We expect that to strengthen further into 2025 with even tighter supplies. So, our current forecast for 2025 is $188 per hundred weight. That would be up $1.32 per hundred weight year-over-year.”
Jekanowski says that outlook is largely dependent on the decisions cattle producers have made over the last three years and are even making now.
“We’re not retaining many heifers to grow the herd. We keep, you know, pulling those cattle in to feed lots to produce beef today instead of beef months and years ahead,” he adds.
Some analysts believe next year’s prices could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back so to speak, finally triggering producers to retain more heifers for herd expansion.
Border closures tied to the threat of New World Screwworm continue to stall Mexican fed cattle imports, tightening U.S. feeder cattle supplies over time — triggering feedlot closures that hinder herd rebuilding efforts, threaten the beef supply chain, and shrink production while consumer prices stay elevated.
February 23, 2026 01:40 PM
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Ranger Road Fire has burned 283,000 acres across Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle and is nearing containment, as ranchers begin assessing cattle and infrastructure losses as they look toward recovery.
February 23, 2026 11:08 AM
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Domestic beef demand remains solid, with the strongest growth occurring through retail channels, according to consumers surveyed in the latest K-State Meat Demand Monitor.
February 22, 2026 09:00 AM
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Fed cattle numbers are down two percent in February, according to the latest USDA report. Marketings fell 13 percent, signaling continued pressure on beef prices in 2026.
February 20, 2026 03:38 PM
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New details on the massive wildfire threatening farms and ranches in the Southern Plains.
February 20, 2026 11:24 AM
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Mason McGuire with the San Angelo Stock Show & Rodeo Association recaps this year’s event and looks ahead to the premium sale in April.
February 19, 2026 02:20 PM
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