Mexico cannot afford a trade war with the U.S., according to a StoneX economist

Economists are weighing in on Mexico’s approach to U.S. tariffs.

Arlan Suderman with StoneX tells us that there is a reason Mexico has been so receptive to President Trump’s demands:

""I’ve been impressed with President Sheinbaum’s approach to President Trump. I felt like they would be able to work something out, and I felt like Trump set the tariff at 25%— Mexico really couldn’t afford, nor could they afford counter tariffs on our food-based commodities because of the food inflation that would create.”

Suderman says that Canada is a different story. Their political scene has been messy lately, leading to a delay in response.

“I think it’s going to take longer. I think they’re less organized right now and responding to it, and I think that’s going to take a little bit longer. Not as long as China, by any means. So I do think that we’ll move to an agreement at some point, maybe over the coming weeks, but it’s going to take longer than Mexico.”

The latest tariff delay only includes products covered under the USMCA. Potash imports from Canada were also adjusted down to 10%, which was welcomed news with planting season already underway in parts of the U.S.

Related Stories
David Hardin with the Indiana Soybean Alliance discusses USMEF’s push to open new global export markets for both meat and soy-based feed.
With the U.S.–Vietnam agreement nearing signature, U.S. cotton, corn, and soybean exporters could lock in new demand lanes just as global supply shifts.
The government reopens after 43 days. USDA resumes key reports, weighs farm aid, and watches China’s next move on U.S. soybean purchases.
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney shares insights from a recent study, discusses EV market access in Canada, and highlights other market opportunities top of mind for Canadian producers.
USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom shares how recent trade talks are influencing U.S. red meat global sales and the importance of key trade agreements like the USMCA.
Enforceable origin labels could create clearer premiums for U.S. cattle and address concerns some producers have had with competition from foreign imported beef.