An energy expert tells Reuters he expects the North American biofuels industry to contract if the uncertainty of tariffs continues to drag on.
Paul Niznik is the Director of Energy at Capstone LLC, he says that while he expects the industry to contract, it will not disappear entirely. He says that tariff unknowns have left little room for prices to catch up, but tariffs are not the industry’s only concerns.
A lack of 45Z tax credit guidance continues to impact the industry.
Brazil’s ethanol industry also faces some tough choices as tariffs loom.
To avoid reciprocal duties from teh U.S., Brazil would have to lower its 18% duty on American ethanol, and while ithis would allow Brazil to keep the U.S. as a key export market, opening itself up to U.S. ethanol would hurt its local industry.
Brazil shipped nearly 300 million liters of ethanol to the U.S. last year.
From tariff talks in Europe to SCOTUS uncertainty and rising farm losses, analysts say policy and global supply will shape grain markets in the year ahead.
January 22, 2026 12:40 PM
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Large Brazilian crops heighten downside price risk if the weather allows production to reach projected levels.
January 22, 2026 12:38 PM
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Ethanol and corn groups are not hiding their disappointment over new reports that the bill to allow year-round E15 sales failed as Congress forges ahead on government funding, with another shutdown looming.
January 22, 2026 11:24 AM
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While row crops are expected to see softer impacts, analysts say severe weather of this magnitude will not be as kind to cattle producers.
January 22, 2026 11:05 AM
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Dairy farmer and Discover Ag co-host Tara Vander Dussen joined us to discuss the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, her experience at the signing, and what’s next for her family and farm.
January 21, 2026 12:42 PM
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The Farm Bureau is making an urgent call to Congress for more farm support. Colton Lacina with Farmers National Company joined us to discuss farmland values and how market dynamics for the year ahead reflect stabilization rather than collapse.
January 21, 2026 12:30 PM
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