As we look toward the upcoming growing season, soybean trade and pricing are key topics of discussion among ag economists.
With global markets in flux and trade uncertain, especially with China, there is much focus on how U.S. producers will navigate these challenges.
Ag economist Joe Janzen from the University of Illinois provided insight into the soybean market, particularly exports and pricing.
“USDA has a pretty level-headed view of global ag commodity trade. And they’re not sort of, I think not overreacting to sort of the worst-case scenario of, you know, a hundred percent-plus tariffs, which would essentially, you know, shut down trade between the United States and China for many products.”
Janzen also notes a slight rise in the forecast for average farm prices, reflecting tighter supply conditions due to lower planted acreage. He says that while prices are expected to rise, there is still significant uncertainty because of global production factors, including crops from South America.
A Reuters report shows China has a soybean “glut,” finding stockpiles at Chinese ports are at record levels, with crushers there holding the most supplies since 2017.
November 12, 2025 10:55 AM
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Export strength is concentrated in corn and wheat, while soybeans and sorghum lag, keeping basis and logistics dynamics highly commodity-specific into late fall.
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David Klein with the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ASFMRA) shares an end-of-harvest update and a peek at the farmland market in Central Illinois.
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According to Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins, the top three soy-crushing companies in Bangladesh agreed to buy $1 billion worth of U.S. soybeans over the next year.
November 04, 2025 11:17 AM
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A strong corn export pull is supportive of bids; soybeans need steady vessel programs or fresh sales to firm cash.
November 04, 2025 10:47 AM
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China’s crusher losses and Brazil tensions, Gale warns, could reopen critical soybean trade channels for U.S. producers.
November 03, 2025 11:13 AM
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China’s grain expansion model may be hitting its limit. Lower prices, high rents, and policy fatigue threaten future output — with ripple effects across global feed and oilseed markets.
November 02, 2025 05:06 AM
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U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD) shares his outlook on the developing U.S.-China Trade agreement, and the ongoing impact of the federal government shutdown—now stretching past four weeks—on rural communities and producers.
October 31, 2025 01:35 PM
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Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association (ASA), shares his reaction to news of soybean sales to China, which is considered both “welcome news” and a return to near-normal trade relations.
October 31, 2025 12:26 PM
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