The Home Stretch: Do farmers sell now or wait for a big rally?

It is hard to believe that September is less than a month away, quickly bringing the crop year to a close. With harvest not that far out, ag economists say it is time to take action on old crop supplies.

“We have to start thinking about selling the carry at harvest. We’ve got big carries in the corn market, big carries in the wheat market, and even big carries showing up in the soybean market. You know, the carry from November to July, the November contract, good grief, where is it? About $9.9 somewhere there today. 9.9 a bushel from November. It’s $0.60-plus higher out to July. That’ll cover your interest costs easily and throw something else in there,” said Ed Usset, with the University of Minnesota.

Usset looks back to earlier this year, saying February was likely the last rally for America’s staple crops, saying the typical spring or summer rally just never arrived.

Related Stories
While row crops are expected to see softer impacts, analysts say severe weather of this magnitude will not be as kind to cattle producers.
Oil-led rallies can move soybean prices quickly, but sustained gains will require continued strength in soybean oil and broader biofuel demand signals.
Analysts say a Supreme Court decision on tariffs could reshape protein markets, strain U.S.-China trade, and force farmers to rethink global demand strategies.
Corn and wheat exports remain a demand bright spot, while soybeans are transitioning into a more typical late-winter shipping slowdown.
Corn growers are turning to ethanol, E15 expansion, and export markets to help absorb record supplies and stabilize prices. Farm leaders discuss low-carbon ethanol demand, flex-fuel vehicle challenges, input costs, and the role of USMCA as producers look for market relief in the year ahead.
From rising trade tensions in Europe to a pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs and shifting demand from China, global trade policy spearheaded by President Donald Trump continues to shape the outlook for U.S. agriculture—adding uncertainty as farmers navigate another volatile year.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Brooks York with AgriSompo joined us with his outlook on crop insurance and risk management following the recent winter storm that tore through most of the United States, including the Midwest.
Placements and marketings beat expectations, but declining on-feed totals and feeder constraints keep the supply story supportive for cattle prices into 2026. Dr. Derrell Peel, with Oklahoma State University, joined us to break down cattle-on-feed numbers and provide his broader market outlook.
USDA Rural Development Director for Kentucky, Travis Burton, joined us to discuss the Princeton facility (formerly Porter Road Meats), now backed by the USDA, and its role in expanding domestic meat processing capacity.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer joined us to break down the recent Fifth Circuit Court decision overturning a prior Tax Court decision on self-employment tax for limited partners, the ruling’s impact on farmers, and potential next steps in Congress.
Americans for Prosperity Arkansas Director Ryan Norris talks energy infrastructure, regulatory reform, and the role of critical minerals in supporting rural America.
Pennsylvania Farm Show scholarship recipient Elizabeth Dice discusses her award, her background in farming, and her path forward in the agriculture industry.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.