The Home Stretch: Do farmers sell now or wait for a big rally?

It is hard to believe that September is less than a month away, quickly bringing the crop year to a close. With harvest not that far out, ag economists say it is time to take action on old crop supplies.

“We have to start thinking about selling the carry at harvest. We’ve got big carries in the corn market, big carries in the wheat market, and even big carries showing up in the soybean market. You know, the carry from November to July, the November contract, good grief, where is it? About $9.9 somewhere there today. 9.9 a bushel from November. It’s $0.60-plus higher out to July. That’ll cover your interest costs easily and throw something else in there,” said Ed Usset, with the University of Minnesota.

Usset looks back to earlier this year, saying February was likely the last rally for America’s staple crops, saying the typical spring or summer rally just never arrived.

Related Stories
The Final Grain Stocks Report may be the last key figures we see if a government shutdown halts future updates.
USDA and EPA officials aim to maintain America’s robust food supply while ensuring farmers have access to key resources and crop protection tools.
The Senate failed to pass a continuing resolution that had been approved by the House the previous week. They could take it up again today, but it would take seven democrats to end the stalemate.
Livestock and government payments provide a boost, but crop receipts and rising expenses keep pressure on margins. Strong financial planning remains key in a volatile environment.
The USDA is working with 14 different states, including Georgia, to develop and implement block grants to address the unique disaster recovery needs for each state.
The total value of the U.S. potato crop was $4.60 billion in 2024, representing an 8% decrease from the previous year.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Mike Newland with the Propane Education & Research Council shares how producers can prepare for winter weather and the benefits of propane.
Stagger buys and diversifies fertilizer sources — watch CBAM, India’s tenders, and Brazil’s import pace to time urea, phosphate, and potash purchases.
Recognizing phosphorus and potash as critical minerals underscores their importance in crop production and food security, providing producers with an added layer of risk protection.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer shares insight into what these new accounts, established in provisions of the Big, Beautiful Bill, could mean for the farm families.
AFBF Economist Danny Munch shares how passing the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act could give the dairy industry a needed boost.
Agriculture Shows
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.
The goal of “Where the Food Comes From” is as simple as its name implies — host Chip Carter takes you along on the journey of where our food comes from — and we don’t just mean to the supermarket (though that’s part of the big picture!). But beyond where it comes from, how it gets there, and all the links in the chain that make that happen.
Join markets specialist Scott Shellady, better known as the Cow Guy, as he covers the market-close, breaking down headlines that drive the commodities and equities markets with commentary from respected industry heavyweights.