The Home Stretch: Do farmers sell now or wait for a big rally?

It is hard to believe that September is less than a month away, quickly bringing the crop year to a close. With harvest not that far out, ag economists say it is time to take action on old crop supplies.

“We have to start thinking about selling the carry at harvest. We’ve got big carries in the corn market, big carries in the wheat market, and even big carries showing up in the soybean market. You know, the carry from November to July, the November contract, good grief, where is it? About $9.9 somewhere there today. 9.9 a bushel from November. It’s $0.60-plus higher out to July. That’ll cover your interest costs easily and throw something else in there,” said Ed Usset, with the University of Minnesota.

Usset looks back to earlier this year, saying February was likely the last rally for America’s staple crops, saying the typical spring or summer rally just never arrived.

Related Stories
Record output, larger stocks, and softer exports point to a well-supplied domestic ethanol market as harvest progresses.
U.S. sugar producers and processors should brace for price pressure and challenging export logistics with global sugar supply ramping up — driven by Brazil, India, and Thailand — especially at the raw processing level.
David Klein with the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ASFMRA) shares an end-of-harvest update and a peek at the farmland market in Central Illinois.
The Farm Bureau urges trade enforcement, biofuel growth, fair input pricing, and pro-farmer policy reforms to restore long-term certainty.
RaboResearch says China’s pivot from mass production to innovation-driven growth could reshape global pesticide supply chains — and influence prices and product access for U.S. farmers in the coming years.
Recent U.S.–China trade developments provided a small lift for soy markets, though most traders are waiting for concrete purchase data before making major moves.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Frigid winter weather and rapid temperature swings have cattle markets watching closely for livestock stress, as analysts say fluctuations pose the greatest risk.
A new study found that retaining the EPA’s half-RIN credit protects soybean demand, farm income, and crushing-sector strength while preserving biofuel market flexibility.
The U.S. has a bountiful corn supply, but markets are waiting for the January WASDE Report, which will include updated yield estimates.
Rising federal debt is increasing pressure on Washington to limit spending, which could tighten future funding and delivery for agricultural programs.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.