The White House tariff plan appears to be back on track for now, but CoBank warns that all this back-and-forth is clouding the future grain markets.
Analysts there say a lack of clarity around tariffs is already pulling down new crop sales, and in some cases, will be below historical averages. CoBank warns that the longer it goes on, the harder it will be for export-reliant elevators.
Ag Senator Tammy Baldwin is also weighing in. She says the events in recent weeks have caused big issues for farmers in her state.
“Export markets are in question. One of our discussions was how incredibly efficient we have become in growing things like corn and soybeans. We now, in Wisconsin and across the country, produce more than we need for on-farm use and sale in local markets, and so an increasing share goes into export markets, but that becomes a big question mark when there are uncertain tariffs threatened or imposed.”
Not all parts of the President’s tariff plan have been called into question by the courts. The added duties on cars, steel, and aluminum have been held in place since they were enacted.
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$11 billion will go to row-crop farmers immediately, with $1 billion set aside for specialty crops.
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American soybean and corn leaders, along with Canada’s AgriFood sector, testified before the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office in support of the trade pact between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.
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WTO gauges point to agricultural raw materials trade growing more slowly than overall goods, reinforcing the need to manage export risk and monitor policy shifts closely.
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One trader said the products entering the U.S. are primarily grind and trim, noting that the volume and type of beef, on its own, should not cause a major disruption. However, he says fund traders are reacting heavily to headlines rather than market realities.
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Higher rail tariffs and tighter Canadian supplies will keep oat transportation costs firm into 2026.
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