Tipping Of The Scales: The U.S. ag trade deficit gap will shrink next year, according to experts

USDA says that the gap in the U.S. ag trade deficit will shrink next year.

The department’s latest trade forecast shows that the U.S. ag trade deficit will drop to $37 billion next year, which is lower than their previous estimates and down from nearly $44 billion this year. Last year, the U.S. ag trade deficit was $32 billion, and $17 billion in 2023.

USDA’s research arm shows the latest adjustment comes as exports are coming in hotter than expected. It is preparing for $173 billion in ag exports next year, adjusted up from their $169 billion estimate during the summer.

Exports are the lifeblood of many U.S. farming operations, and recent numbers show just how much they impact the overall economy.

USDA numbers show that in 2023, all U.S. ag exports generated $362 billion in economic output. Non-bulk exports reached $101 billion, generating an additional $120 billion.
For each dollar of exported ag products, USDA says it generated $2.06 in domestic activity.

USDA economists took a look at production costs over the last season.

Corn this year cost just shy of $809 an acre. Next year, they estimate those costs to hit $916. Soybeans cost this year ran $658 per acre, with next year estimates at $678.
Wheat is projected to jump from $395 to $409 an acre.

Related Stories
U.S. Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas discusses expected changes to the 45Z tax credit and what they could mean for agriculture and rural America.
Shrinking slaughter capacity may delay heifer retention, complicating herd rebuilding plans.
Securing Critical Water Resources for South Texas Agriculture
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney says farmers there are already sounding the alarm about what this could mean for the future of ag research.
Global pork production is expected to rise in the first half of 2026, despite trade volatility stemming from shifting import policies and swine disease pressures.