NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — President Donald Trump and his team are preparing for high-level meetings in Beijing next week, with market analysts and farmers closely watching for signs of new agricultural trade agreements with China.
Analysts say the talks could be especially important for U.S. soybean growers, who continue looking for stronger export demand amid ongoing market uncertainty.
Jerry Gulke says markets appear optimistic heading into the meetings, but he cautions that producers have seen similar enthusiasm before.
“Apparently, we’re anticipating good news, and we haven’t heard about that eight million that Trump would like to sell,” Gulke says. “We’re behind about eight to 10 million [metric tons] on normal exports. So, a person could assume that the market is thinking that something good’s going to come out of the meeting. However, I remember the Phase One meeting that they had back when Trump won his first term, and everybody’s excited about that, but in that framework that we had and signed, there was a phrase in there that China agreed to buy ‘X amount of dollars’ worth of goods.”
Gulke says he hopes this round of negotiations includes more specific commitments focused on actual grain volumes rather than dollar figures.
“They could very well talk about bushels, which will be positive, because the framework in November, Trump negotiated that framework deal and talked about 12 million metric tons this marketing season, which they complied with, and then another 25 million thereafter, for the next two years,” Gulke explains. “He’s talking bushels this time, and that’s what we really want to see happen, is we want to see these bushels leave, whether it’s corn or soybeans or sorghum, get them out of this country and not talk so much about the dollar.”
China recently hosted Iranian officials while calling for stability in the Middle East as the war continues. Financial analysts say that diplomatic involvement could help pave the way for more productive trade discussions with the United States next week. Shawn Hackett says the developments could help broaden any potential trade agreements beyond soybeans.
“The very fact that China is making this overture to help in Iran means that next week’s meeting could be quite productive,” Hackett adds. “And what we could see is a very healthy broadening of the trade deal or trade truce to include other grain markets and other U.S. ag markets. And so what’s negative today could be very positive tomorrow, and dovetails right into your analogy of bungee jumping. I think we could be down this week, but actually see a much better week next week on optimism over a better trade deal.”
President Trump is scheduled to arrive in China on Thursday and return the following day.
Farmers across the country say they are eager to see tangible export opportunities emerge from the meetings. Ohio farmer Chris Gibbs told RFD News he wants to see finalized agreements instead of preliminary frameworks.
“We’re certainly looking for additional exports. We haven’t seen that yet from the administration,” Gibbs said. “They continue to talk about trade deals, but I’m not sure that we’ve seen really any trade deals, because I haven’t seen any ink other than maybe a trade deal to Indonesia on some beef products. But other than that, I think what we have is frameworks of a deal, to talk about a trade deal. And I want to see, I want to see grain move because the best way to get dollars, to extract foreign dollars into my rural communities and rural communities all across America is export sales.”
Gibbs says export concerns are being compounded by rising input costs tied to the ongoing war with Iran.
“I’m not alone in this, and maybe misery loves company, so I know that I’m not the only one in this boat,” Gibbs continued. “Certainly, nitrogen prices have increased, almost doubled. I’m paying now what I had to pay; another $80 an acre for nitrogen last year was about $275 a ton. For 28% nitrogen this year, we’re already over $500. Diesel fuel certainly has doubled, almost doubled, since the Strait of Hormuz was closed because of the war.”
Fertilizer Spike Exposes Deeper Weaknesses in Farm Inputs
The latest fertilizer spike is doing more than raising costs for growers. John Duff of Serō Ag says the disruption tied to the Strait of Hormuz is exposing deeper structural weaknesses in a farm-input system already strained by nutrient loss, environmental leakage, and heavy dependence on geopolitically sensitive supply chains.
Duff argues this shock differs from the 2022 fertilizer runup because crop prices are not providing the same cushion. In the earlier spike, stronger grain markets helped offset part of the cost surge. This time, the hit is landing primarily on the input side, leaving producers’ margins tighter.
He also says the timeline may be longer. With fertilizer feedstocks concentrated in the Gulf region, elevated prices could persist beyond this season and into 2027, especially if shipping constraints and energy disruptions persist.
At the farm level, the stress is already showing up in decisions on application rates, crop mix, timing, and efficiency tools. Duff says higher prices are pushing more producers to reconsider enhanced-efficiency products, biologicals, and other ways to reduce nutrient losses.
The broader message is that fertilizer is no longer just a seasonal cost issue. It is becoming a longer-term question about supply resilience, input efficiency, and how much flexibility the current system really has.
Rising Diesel Prices Add Pressure on Food Banks and Agriculture Supply Chains
Diesel prices have surged in recent weeks, placing additional strain on farmers and on industries closely tied to agriculture — including food banks and food distribution networks.
Food bank leaders say higher transportation costs are driving up expenses at a time when demand for assistance continues to grow. Food Bank of Iowa representative Annette Hacker says fuel prices are affecting every stage of the food supply process.
“The fuel costs affect the food coming in the door, because, of course, the food we source has to come here on a truck, and fuel prices affect that, as well as food going out the door that we deliver free to the doorsteps of our 700 partners across 55 Iowa counties,” Hacker explains. “So, the bottom line is that food costs more. It costs more to get it here, it costs more to get it out the door, and more Iowans need help with food than ever before.”
Hacker says rising fuel prices have added thousands of dollars in new monthly expenses to the organization’s budget, noting that these surprise transportation costs directly reduce the amount of food the organization can provide to families in need as demand for the service continues to grow.
“We are still sourcing as much food as we can to try to meet the growing demand,” Hacker said. “However, like any expense to our budget, we look at this extra $5,000 a month we’re spending on fuel. We look at any expense like that and think that could be food. That could be 8,300-plus meals, and, of course, we’d far rather spend our budget on food than fuel. We hope fuel prices level off here sooner than later, but it doesn’t look very promising, does it?”
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney told RFD News this week that producers should not expect fertilizer and fuel prices to fall quickly, even if tensions ease in the Middle East.
“For farmers though, I would be holding pad in terms of expecting that these prices are gonna remain where they are — even if the Strait of Hormuz was to open, say, next week, and be back to normal — let’s say there is such a back log here, its not exactly like that pump is prime, just like this and we are back to normal,” Haney said. “So, although the oil prices have been really bouncing around the past week on speculation of the war ending, the risk premium overall still remains in the market, and it’s still going to mean higher diesel prices. We’re gonna stay at these higher prices for probably through the summer, that’s at least what I’m hearing from a lot of people that are following this closely.”
Haney also says Europe is facing its own economic pressures as global trade relationships continue to shift.
“Europe is really in a bind, so to speak, but they don’t have a good relationship with the U.S.,” Haney explained. “They have growing friction with China, and there is a lot of concern about affordability, just like there is in America. So it’s putting a lot of pressure on the EU to find a trading partner to try to keep costs down, which is difficult at times of high trade friction. It’s easier to find foes than friends, it seems right now.”
RFD News will continue to follow the latest developments surrounding the Beijing meetings, export markets, and input costs with updates next week on Market Day Report and Rural Evening News.
(Tags: Fertilizer, John Duff, Serō Ag, Farm Inputs, Nutrient Efficiency)
