U.S. ag trade deficit could surpass $45 billion this year

This year’s ag trade deficit is forecast to ballon past $45 billion. It is a number that puts the trade balance in the red by double digits.

“A trade balance of -$12 billion, which is $8.9 billion less than the -$3 billion during the same time period the previous year,” said Bart Kenner, USDA economist.

Kenner says the main driver of slower exports in the last couple of years has been the strong dollar compared to foreign currencies. U.S. ag exports fell around $4 billion last year. Exports to Asia are expected to fall several billion dollars this year, and that was calculated before tariff discussions.

Related Stories
A new maritime biofuels coalition aims to position ocean shipping as a significant growth market for U.S. crops and waste-derived fuels.
Transportation access, legal disputes, and fertilizer freight costs will directly influence input pricing and grain movement in 2026.
Despite China’s sharp drop in grain purchases this year, new USDA export data this week shows that even some buying activity from the trade giant still moves the markets.
Corn and wheat exports remain supportive, but weaker soybean demand — especially from China — continues to pressure oilseed markets.
China’s pullback is hitting core U.S. commodities hard, reshaping export expectations for soybeans, cotton, grains, and livestock.