Market analysts are closely watching the wheat markets as they have seen a rally in recent days. Some think weather is the main driver, but traders have other ideas.
Brian Hoops with Midwest Market Solutions tells us it all comes down to geopolitical pressure. He believes U.S. wheat could get more competitive globally if the war in Ukraine comes to a close.
“Because Russia has been taking wheat out of the Ukraine And other places and selling it on the world market at a very cheap rate. They’re just undercutting everyone in an effort to finance their war. In theory, if the war ends, there’s no reason to finance that war and no reason to take that wheat and dump it on the world market at cheap prices. Maybe this wheat market can recover off of that news.”
China is another area that traders are closely watching. This month’s WASDE report showed changes on balance sheets that could indicate trouble within the Chinese economy.
China is making strategic moves by purchasing more soybeans from Argentina and may soon follow the EU and reopen its market to Brazilian chicken exports.
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Farmers should watch for soybean export rebounds with harvest, while corn and wheat shipments remain strong and sorghum demand struggles.
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Corn and beef exports showed strong momentum, cotton sales surged, and soybean sales held steady, though China remains absent from the U.S. market.
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Harvested acres are estimated at 90.0 million, making this year’s corn crop one of the largest since the 1930s.
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China has been largely absent from U.S. markets lately, but not when it comes to cotton. It’s a buy that, traders say, isn’t surprising given China’s limitations.
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