USDA data shows ag trade balance sheets are in the red with double-digit declines in the billions of dollars expected this year.
For wheat, economists explain that there is a unique situation happening.
“We see wheat exports rounded up to $2 billion, which is down 6% from the same period last year, whereas we’ve got a 6% increase by volume for last year, so we’re actually exporting more wheat, but at a lower price. So we’re seeing a negative value change over the last year,” said USDA economist Bart Kenner.
While the markets work to digest all the recent changes, some traders are following the numbers and they say they are showing a pattern.
Related Stories
Ethanol demand held together last week, but lower production and thinner stocks put more focus on export strength. Production capacity is also strengthening over time and benefiting soybean farmers.
Farm Bureau Economist Dr. Faith Parum discusses USDA’s efforts to expand fertilizer capacity, signals for farm profitability, and AFBF’s Farm Bill expectations.
Expanded export financing could provide greater support for ag sales abroad if buyers and lenders use the additional tools.
The farm bill is still moving, but the toughest amendment fights were pushed into today’s session. ASA President Scott Metzger joins us to discuss the risks of tariff actions on soybean exports, concerns over trade policy and production costs, and the importance of Farm Bill updates.
Higher input costs are making flexible marketing plans and updated break-even targets more important.
Rail rulings, export terminal access, and equipment rules are becoming bigger factors in grain shipping costs and reliability.