AFBF Economist: E15 Expansion Could Strengthen Corn Demand and U.S. Energy Security

A permanent national E15 standard would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and provide a stable path for U.S. energy security.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Ethanol’s role as a major market for corn and a key pillar of U.S. energy security is back in focus as policymakers debate nationwide, year-round E15 sales, according to analysis by Faith Parum, Ph.D., economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). With gasoline demand projected to decline over the next decade, expanding E15 access is emerging as one of the most important levers for protecting long-term ethanol demand — and the billions of bushels of corn tied to it.

Ethanol currently consumes about 5.6 billion bushels of corn annually, but blend rates have stalled near E10, and outdated summer volatility rules restrict E15 sales in many states. Even with EPA’s temporary summer waivers, the lack of a permanent policy creates uncertainty for retailers and slows investment in pumps, tanks, and signage needed to grow adoption.

For corn farmers, the stakes are large. Without higher blends, domestic ethanol use could fall by 400 million bushels over the next decade. By contrast, moving entirely to year-round E15 could require up to 2.4 billion additional bushels of corn each year—a transformational shift for rural economies and biofuel markets.

Regionally, more than 3,000 U.S. stations already offer E15, and major automakers approve it for modern vehicles. Consumers also benefit: E15 often costs 10–30 cents less per gallon and cuts tailpipe emissions by roughly 46%, strengthening both household budgets and environmental performance.

Farm-Level Takeaway: A permanent national E15 standard would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and provide a stable path for U.S. energy security.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
NRCS leadership affects how conservation dollars, technical assistance and working-lands priorities reach farmers and ranchers.
At the center of the announcement is the Blue Point Project in Louisiana, a $3.7 billion ammonia facility, USDA says, that will become the world’s largest ammonia plant once completed.
Ag Commissioner Sid Miller and Rep. Henry Cuellar say rising costs and generational shifts are making it harder to keep young producers in the industry.
USDA says both crops remain ahead of the five-year average as farmers continue monitoring dry Corn Belt conditions.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Beef is leading the decline as slaughter drops and supplies tighten.
Ethanol demand held together last week, but lower production and thinner stocks put more focus on export strength. Production capacity is also strengthening over time and benefiting soybean farmers.
Expanded export financing could provide greater support for ag sales abroad if buyers and lenders use the additional tools.
Kansas Congressman Derek Schmidt joins us to discuss House passage of the Farm Bill, its potential impact on farm profitability and stability, key policy compromises, and the outlook for Senate consideration.
The farm bill is still moving, but the toughest amendment fights were pushed into today’s session. ASA President Scott Metzger joins us to discuss the risks of tariff actions on soybean exports, concerns over trade policy and production costs, and the importance of Farm Bill updates.
A more independent UAE could add long-term pressure and volatility to energy markets, affecting fuel and fertilizer costs.