NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Brazil’s fast-growing corn ethanol industry is creating new risks and opportunities for U.S. corn producers. Analysis from Grant Gardner, Assistant Extension Professor at the University of Kentucky at Martin, shows Brazil’s expanding domestic corn use could reshape global trade flows and add volatility to corn prices.
Brazil has long been a major ethanol producer, traditionally relying on sugarcane. But by 2024, about 20 percent of the country’s ethanol output came from corn, driven largely by safrinha production in the Center-West region.
Corn ethanol capacity in Brazil is projected to start near 23 million metric tons in 2026 and could grow to between 33 and 55 million metric tons by 2035. Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop totaled about 5.56 billion bushels, meaning projected 2026 ethanol capacity would consume a meaningful share of production.
As more corn moves into ethanol and feed use, export availability may fluctuate, which could reduce competition with U.S. corn in some years but increase volatility in global markets and futures prices.
