AFBF Economist: E15 Expansion Could Strengthen Corn Demand and U.S. Energy Security

A permanent national E15 standard would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and provide a stable path for U.S. energy security.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Ethanol’s role as a major market for corn and a key pillar of U.S. energy security is back in focus as policymakers debate nationwide, year-round E15 sales, according to analysis by Faith Parum, Ph.D., economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). With gasoline demand projected to decline over the next decade, expanding E15 access is emerging as one of the most important levers for protecting long-term ethanol demand — and the billions of bushels of corn tied to it.

Ethanol currently consumes about 5.6 billion bushels of corn annually, but blend rates have stalled near E10, and outdated summer volatility rules restrict E15 sales in many states. Even with EPA’s temporary summer waivers, the lack of a permanent policy creates uncertainty for retailers and slows investment in pumps, tanks, and signage needed to grow adoption.

For corn farmers, the stakes are large. Without higher blends, domestic ethanol use could fall by 400 million bushels over the next decade. By contrast, moving entirely to year-round E15 could require up to 2.4 billion additional bushels of corn each year—a transformational shift for rural economies and biofuel markets.

Regionally, more than 3,000 U.S. stations already offer E15, and major automakers approve it for modern vehicles. Consumers also benefit: E15 often costs 10–30 cents less per gallon and cuts tailpipe emissions by roughly 46%, strengthening both household budgets and environmental performance.

Farm-Level Takeaway: A permanent national E15 standard would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and provide a stable path for U.S. energy security.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Mike Steenhoek with the Soy Transportation Coalition discusses supply chain disruptions, rising costs, and the potential impact on agriculture as farmers navigate ongoing global uncertainty.
For producers, the cost of doing business is no longer determined solely by feed, fuel, and weather—it is increasingly a matter of navigating the differing legal philosophies of every state line they cross.
The action follows the March 13 ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, which upheld a district court decision denying a preliminary injunction that sought to halt the exchange.
Renowned farm broadcaster and friend of RFD-TV, Orion Samuelson, will undoubtedly be remembered for many things, but most of all, his work as a champion of America’s farmers and ranchers will define his legacy.
Strong exports support ethanol margins and corn demand.
American Soybean Association President Scott Metzger discusses his recent testimony before the Senate Ag Committee, key priorities for soy growers, and his outlook for farmers into spring planting.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Cuban economic reforms could open up nearby export demand, but policy execution remains the key uncertainty.
Bipartisan momentum builds, but final farm policy remains unsettled.
Heavy cattle weights are cushioning beef supplies despite shrinking herd numbers.
Farm bill negotiations remain unsettled, leaving producers waiting for updated federal support programs.
Domestic textile demand plays a shrinking role in supporting U.S. cotton prices.
Strong cattle markets are masking ongoing financial stress across crop agriculture.