AFBF Economist: E15 Expansion Could Strengthen Corn Demand and U.S. Energy Security

A permanent national E15 standard would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and provide a stable path for U.S. energy security.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Ethanol’s role as a major market for corn and a key pillar of U.S. energy security is back in focus as policymakers debate nationwide, year-round E15 sales, according to analysis by Faith Parum, Ph.D., economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). With gasoline demand projected to decline over the next decade, expanding E15 access is emerging as one of the most important levers for protecting long-term ethanol demand — and the billions of bushels of corn tied to it.

Ethanol currently consumes about 5.6 billion bushels of corn annually, but blend rates have stalled near E10, and outdated summer volatility rules restrict E15 sales in many states. Even with EPA’s temporary summer waivers, the lack of a permanent policy creates uncertainty for retailers and slows investment in pumps, tanks, and signage needed to grow adoption.

For corn farmers, the stakes are large. Without higher blends, domestic ethanol use could fall by 400 million bushels over the next decade. By contrast, moving entirely to year-round E15 could require up to 2.4 billion additional bushels of corn each year—a transformational shift for rural economies and biofuel markets.

Regionally, more than 3,000 U.S. stations already offer E15, and major automakers approve it for modern vehicles. Consumers also benefit: E15 often costs 10–30 cents less per gallon and cuts tailpipe emissions by roughly 46%, strengthening both household budgets and environmental performance.

Farm-Level Takeaway: A permanent national E15 standard would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and provide a stable path for U.S. energy security.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Producers growing multiple spring crops should compare CLIP with individual coverage increases and county-based supplemental protection.
Estimates for 2026 harvested crops remain early. Corn and sorghum are below their reference prices, while wheat and soybeans are above them.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer says the implementation of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” brings several positive changes for producers.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says USDA has been preparing for a New World screwworm outbreak for more than a year as officials expand sterile fly production and containment efforts in Texas.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Unlike facilities focused on merchant ammonia, Meadowlark would convert its on-site ammonia into UAN and sulfur-containing ATS fertilizers used by regional crop producers.
For producers, the issue is diesel, freight, irrigation fuel, and input delivery.
The proposed USDA rule would replace negative pay adjustments with a guaranteed minimum base rate for poultry growers.
Reduced slaughter numbers and stronger export demand are helping push livestock by-product values higher.
USDA will elevate its “Plant Not Plastic” initiative and promote American cotton over synthetic fibers.
The investigation does not prove wrongdoing, but it raises federal scrutiny of a major cost center for crop producers.