The ag trade deficit is projected to rise again this year. New numbers out this week show it has taken big leaps over the last couple of seasons.
USDA shows the ag trade deficit will land in the red at $49.5 billion for this fiscal year, which ends in September, and that is up from $49 billion projected back in February. Last year, the deficit was just shy of $32 billion, and it was $17 billion in 2023. In 2021, the ag trade deficit was just $2 billion.
The updates come as USDA lowered its forecast for exports of livestock products, canceling out increases in oilseeds and grains.
Before leaving her trade mission in Rome this week, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins took to X, commenting on those new numbers. She says the time has come to shrink that gap and open up new markets around the world. She adds that additional bilateral trade deals are on the horizon for U.S. row croppers. Secretary Rollins left Italy yesterday, but has plans for more trips to India, Vietnam, and Japan next month.
China-led demand continues to anchor soybean and sorghum exports despite weekly swings.
February 04, 2026 06:00 AM
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Global pork production is expected to rise in the first half of 2026, despite trade volatility stemming from shifting import policies and swine disease pressures.
February 03, 2026 12:50 PM
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Economists are also closely watching how policy decisions in Washington could influence markets moving forward. Analysts say deferred futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat suggest markets are operating near break-even levels, not at prices that would encourage expanded production.
February 02, 2026 12:13 PM
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Strong rail demand and higher fuel costs raise transportation risk even as barge and export flows stabilize.
January 30, 2026 02:21 PM
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Traders say that shift could eventually prompt the USDA to scale back soybean export projections, noting the outlook differs greatly for other grain commodities.
January 30, 2026 01:13 PM
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Often overlooked, cotton wholesalers act as stabilizers during market stress, translating fragmented retail demand into workable production programs for mills and manufacturers.
January 30, 2026 08:00 AM
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