Analysts will be watching corn yields when the August WASDE report drops today. Early signs show USDA is poised to raise its average yield estimate, which could send markets reacting fast.
Our friend Oliver Sloup with Blue Line Futures explains why he will be watching this area.
“The average yield estimate is going to be the big headline number that we’re looking at for corn that comes in at 184.3, well above where the USDA was last month at 181. So I suspect that we’ll probably trade that WASDE report there for maybe an hour or so. We’ll talk about the headline risk, and then I think a lot of the attention is going to turn towards the crop tour that starts next week as well, which will be on and will be starting on the eastern leg. So it’ll be good to get some boots on the ground, really across the whole corn belt to kind of get a better idea of what’s actually out there. We’ve heard of some potential pollination issues, you know, how widespread is that? Still to be determined. So, again, it’s going to be good to get out there in the field and see for ourselves.”
If the House concurs and the President signs, USDA services and farm-bill programs resume at full speed with authorities extended for another year.
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The WASDE/Crop Production combo will be the first full read on supply, demand, and yield that could move basis and hedging plans since the government shutdown more than a month ago.
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China’s grain expansion model may be hitting its limit. Lower prices, high rents, and policy fatigue threaten future output — with ripple effects across global feed and oilseed markets.
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Market analyst and friend of the show, Shawn Hackett, says Brazil’s shifting use of crops for biofuel production is a significant factor.
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Farm CPA Paul Neiffer joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to discuss the implications for farmers.
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