NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — A bigger Australian harvest is helping swell world grain supplies and weigh on prices heading into 2026. National production for the 2025/26 season is forecast at 64.2 million tons, up 5.2 million tons or 8.8 percent from last year, supported by widespread rainfall across key grain belts. Western Australia could record its second-largest crop on record, while Queensland and northern New South Wales continue to benefit from strong soil moisture reserves.
Improved wheat and canola yields, alongside expanded barley plantings, are driving the increase, according to Rabo Research. However, Australia faces tough export competition as large crops in Russia, the European Union, and the United States add to global supply. High carryover stocks in Australia and Canada are also limiting price upside, leaving domestic wheat values under pressure even as export demand stays firm.
Barley output is on track for near-record levels, putting more focus on export pace and feed grain use in domestic livestock sectors. Canola exports to Europe may soften with stronger EU production, though reduced sunflower output elsewhere and restocking needs could support non-GM canola prices. Chinese demand for Australian canola is expected to strengthen again in 2026, improving prospects for GM varieties.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Australia’s expanding harvest and global oversupply are keeping wheat and barley prices capped, though canola markets may hold firmer on shifting oilseed demand.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Support policies that keep U.S. biofuels at the table—marine demand could materially lift corn grind, crush margins, and rural jobs.
October 15, 2025 03:47 PM
·
Industry leaders say $11 billion in new investments could turn the tide as dairy producers face shrinking margins and growing uncertainty.
October 15, 2025 11:53 AM
·
Export Inspections In Bushels Show Mixed Momentum Patterns
October 15, 2025 11:38 AM
·
U.S. Farmers Face Shifting Harvest Pace, Basis, and Input Costs
October 15, 2025 10:47 AM
·
Even in this strong market, some beef producers are leaving money on the table by not following proven marketing practices.
October 14, 2025 12:03 PM
·
Better yield measurement means fairer grids, more precise breeding targets, and more dollars for truly efficient cattle.
October 13, 2025 10:45 AM
·
Escalating U.S.–China tensions threaten soybean demand as farm finances are stretched further.
October 13, 2025 10:40 AM
·
Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.
October 09, 2025 05:10 PM
·
CoBank Lead Grains Economist Tanner Ehmke joins us to share insight and concerns over current grain storage capacity as export demand lags.
October 09, 2025 01:36 PM
·
