Black Sea Conflict May Reconfigure Some World Ag Trade

The war in Ukraine has left global grain importers wondering if there will be enough supply.

So, many of them are already searching for alternative options. A Virginia Tech trade analyst says thankfully the U.S. is not dependent on grains from Russia or Ukraine due to high domestic productivity, but many countries are less fortunate.

“But that’s not the case for Egypt and Turkey and Indonesia and Philippines and China, and so I believe a lot of these countries you’ll see trying to shift orders at least in the short term. Where can they find corn? Where can they find some other vegetable oil because Russia and Ukraine are big sunflower oil and meal producers and exporters.”

Grant says this will create opportunities for other wheat exporters like the U.S., Canada, the EU and Australia, but how long the war lasts will determine how much real change we will see in world grain trade patterns.


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