China purchases of U.S. ag on the rebound, but what will happen at the end of the year

China is on pace for record purchases of U.S. agriculture exports.

USDA will update its forecast today which is expected to show ag exports of $35 billion dollars for the fiscal year. Fiscal years run October through September and the previous record is $26 billion back in 2014.

On a calendar year basis, the record is $26.5 billion, set last year.

This means China’s purchases are back to levels seen before the trade war, but one economist is asking what will happen once Phase One expires at the end of the year.

David Widmar, with Ag Economic Insights, says that the tariffs were not deleted, they have just been temporarily suspended. He says that the Phase One deal was always a “bridge” to something else and with a new administration it is not clear where the bridge leads.


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