NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Drought conditions are continuing to put major pressure on the U.S. winter wheat crop, with some analysts warning that recent rains may come too late to make a difference.
“People are talking about how the rains are going to help the wheat crop…it’s not,” one trader said. “That crop is too far gone. It’s been zeroed out as far as insurance goes… a lot of that western area wheat, I think, is just going to be zeroed out and we’re not going to have much of a crop there.”
Dry conditions have been especially severe across key growing states, including Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Nebraska, where moisture deficits have persisted throughout the season.
Farmers Battling a Difficult Dry Season
Oklahoma wheat producer Jimmy Kinder says this year’s crop has struggled from the start, describing it as a constant fight to keep fields alive.
“It’s been a story of almost like a cat with nine lives,” Kinder said. “We’ve lost it several times… we had limited moisture early on and had to re-sow quite a bit of the wheat that we had planted.”
Kinder says his cattle operation has helped offset some of the losses, allowing him to graze wheat fields that would typically be reserved for harvest.
“We turned cattle out on some wheat that probably normally wouldn’t have been turned out on…we grazed it super hard all year,” he said. “I’ve got a couple of fields that have already been turned in as a loss.”
According to the latest USDA Crop Progress report, 33 percent of the winter wheat crop is now rated poor to very poor—12 points higher than this time last year.
While some areas may still benefit from late-season moisture, analysts say large portions of the crop have already suffered irreversible damage.
Cotton Also Feeling The Strain
Wheat isn’t the only crop under pressure. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows 98 percent of cotton-growing regions are experiencing drought conditions, with 91 percent classified as severe drought.
“That’s a big number,” one analyst said. “The drought persists in the West and in the Southeast.”
Rain is expected across parts of the Corn Belt in the coming days, which could help replenish soil moisture—but may also slow planting progress for spring crops.
“At this point, moisture is a good thing,” analyst Brady Huck noted. “But a lot of guys want to get the crop in the ground. We’ll see how much planting progress we make next week.”
The next USDA crop progress update is scheduled for Monday at 3 p.m. ET, with markets closely watching for signs of improvement—or further deterioration.
