Economists on Interest Rates: “I wish we had a crystal ball to know what’s next”

Borrowing costs are at the top of farmers’ minds as they get ready to plant for the year.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell left interest rates unchanged last week. Economists say it is anyone’s guess where the year will go, but warn you need to be prepared.

“I wish we had a crystal ball to know what’s next, and I would say that what you don’t want to do is just cross your fingers and hope interest rates keep falling. Not doing anything is just as risky as taking an all-in position either way. So what we’ve seen a lot of people do is somewhere meet in the middle where they try to get to a risk rate neutral stance where half the debts floating, half the debts fixed. If rates go up, great, you have protection in place. If rates keep falling, great, half the debt keeps on floating down lower, too,” said Josh Cannington with StoneX.

Carrington says it is important to make use of market tools, like swap options, which could allow farmers to choose which risks they want to take.

Related Stories
High fertilizer costs and global risks threaten spring margins for growers.
Heightened Chinese inspections increase trade volatility for U.S. livestock exporters.
Rail logistics remain supportive, with access to Mexico improving
Strong land values contrast with mounting credit pressure.
Restored base acres strengthen cotton risk protection.
Agriculture Freedom Zones reflect rising concern that data center growth must not strain rural grids or displace productive farmland.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The Ranger Road Fire spreads from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Kansas as high winds and red flag conditions persist
University of Nebraska President Dr. Jeffrey Gold discusses the ongoing measles outbreak in the United States and the importance of vaccination awareness on this week’s Rural Health Matters.
Federal aid helps, but producers will bear most of the losses. Balance sheets may look stable, but margins remain fragile without policy support.
Biofuel and corn producers await proposal as Renewable Fuels Association pushes for expanded ethanol access.
Lori Stevermer with the National Pork Producers Council reacts to the USDA’s speedline proposal, the new Farm Bill’s fix for California’s Prop-12, and other policy developments impacting the pork industry.