WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. cattle numbers edged lower at the start of 2026, reinforcing that herd rebuilding remains slow and uneven despite improving price incentives. USDA’s January 1 Cattle Inventory Report shows modest declines across most categories, with beef cow numbers continuing to contract while milk cows expand.
All cattle and calves totaled 86.2 million head on January 1, down slightly from 86.5 million head a year earlier. Cows and heifers that have calved declined marginally to 37.2 million head. Beef cows fell 1 percent to 27.6 million head, while milk cows increased 2 percent to 9.57 million head, reflecting divergent trends between the beef and dairy sectors.
Heifer inventories signal limited momentum toward herd expansion. All heifers weighing 500 pounds and over totaled 18.0 million head, down 1 percent from a year ago. Beef replacement heifers rose 1 percent to 4.71 million head, but milk replacement heifers slipped slightly to 3.90 million head. Other heifers declined 2 percent, underscoring continued tightness in the replacement pipeline.
Market-ready supplies also remain constrained. Steers over 500 pounds declined 1 percent to 15.6 million head, while calves under 500 pounds dipped slightly to 13.3 million head. Total cattle on feed fell 3 percent to 13.8 million head, confirming tighter feedlot inventories entering 2026.
The calf crop continues to shrink. The 2025 calf crop was estimated at 32.9 million head, down 2 percent from 2024, with fewer calves born in both the first and second halves of the year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Smaller cow numbers and a declining calf crop point to prolonged tight cattle supplies, limiting near-term herd rebuilding potential.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Quinn Rutt of Upstream Ranch previews the Nebraska cattle operation’s 49th Annual Production Sale where buyers can expect standout sire groups and a blend of long-standing ranch practices with modern genetic selection.
January 30, 2026 03:23 PM
·
Jim Matheson, CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, provides new updates on winter storm impacts and the outlook for rural power reliability.
January 30, 2026 02:59 PM
·
Jessi Grote from the AgriSafe Network provides winter safety guidance for rural communities still recovering from the recent winter storm.
January 30, 2026 01:42 PM
·
CattleCon 2026 officially kicks off Tuesday and continues through Thursday, bringing producers together to shape the future of the U.S. cattle industry.
January 30, 2026 01:30 PM
·
The federal government’s status is far from the only factor moving the markets on Friday. Two critical reports released today on producer inflation and the status of the U.S. cattle herd are also top of mind.
January 30, 2026 12:51 PM
·
The changing political climate in America is leading to a drop in migrant crossings near the U.S.-Mexico border, where ranchers like Dr. Mike Vickers say they witnessed horrors from death to child trafficking.
January 30, 2026 11:47 AM
·
Record milk output looks strong today, but shrinking replacement numbers mean future supply adjustments could be faster and more volatile.
January 30, 2026 11:44 AM
·
A rapidly intensifying winter storm is expected to develop into a bomb cyclone this weekend, affecting the Southeast, southern Virginia, and potentially parts of the mid‑Atlantic and New England.
January 30, 2026 10:52 AM
Often overlooked, cotton wholesalers act as stabilizers during market stress, translating fragmented retail demand into workable production programs for mills and manufacturers.
January 30, 2026 08:00 AM
·
