Economists on Interest Rates: “I wish we had a crystal ball to know what’s next”

Borrowing costs are at the top of farmers’ minds as they get ready to plant for the year.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell left interest rates unchanged last week. Economists say it is anyone’s guess where the year will go, but warn you need to be prepared.

“I wish we had a crystal ball to know what’s next, and I would say that what you don’t want to do is just cross your fingers and hope interest rates keep falling. Not doing anything is just as risky as taking an all-in position either way. So what we’ve seen a lot of people do is somewhere meet in the middle where they try to get to a risk rate neutral stance where half the debts floating, half the debts fixed. If rates go up, great, you have protection in place. If rates keep falling, great, half the debt keeps on floating down lower, too,” said Josh Cannington with StoneX.

Carrington says it is important to make use of market tools, like swap options, which could allow farmers to choose which risks they want to take.

Related Stories
The Ranger Road Fire in the Oklahoma Panhandle is now 65% contained after burning nearly 300,000 acres over the past week. Kevin Charleston of Specialty Risk Insurance Agency discusses wildfire recovery, livestock insurance considerations, and the importance of preparedness for producers across the Southern Plains.
Cotton jassid, a invasive pest, is raising concerns for Southeast cotton growers as experts work to understand its impact this season.
Higher output keeps milk supplies ample, reinforcing expectations for softer dairy prices even as feed costs remain favorable.
Cash flow management and lender communication are becoming critical survival tools for farmers as tightening margins increase risk and borrowing pressure.
Expanded global trade access boosts long-term export demand potential for U.S. ag products.
RFD Farm Legal & Tax expert Roger McEowen shares guidance on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, its impact on renewable energy and agriculture, and what producers should know moving forward.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Gretchen Kuck of the National Corn Growers Association joined us to discuss the Ag Coalition for USMCA’s report findings and expectations ahead of the upcoming USMCA review.
Kevin Charleston of Specialty Risk Insurance discusses the importance of grain bin safety and joint efforts with Nationwide to provide farmers and first responders with access to critical, life-saving rescue tubes.
RealAg Radio host Sean Haney outlines the Trump Administration’s current trade priorities and what meaningful market expansion looks like for farmers.
Dr. Kelly Bruns from the Nebraska College of Technical Agriculture discusses how the college prepares students for careers in agriculture.
Bankruptcy filings reflect prolonged margin pressure, rising debt, and limited financial flexibility across farm country. Bigger operating loans are helping farms manage costs, but they also signal growing reliance on borrowed capital.
USDA’s February WASDE report, analysts expect minimal price movement as grain stocks remain steady. Traders weigh renewed Chinese soybean purchases, South American weather, acreage shifts, and upcoming USMCA trade talks.