Economists on Interest Rates: “I wish we had a crystal ball to know what’s next”

Borrowing costs are at the top of farmers’ minds as they get ready to plant for the year.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell left interest rates unchanged last week. Economists say it is anyone’s guess where the year will go, but warn you need to be prepared.

“I wish we had a crystal ball to know what’s next, and I would say that what you don’t want to do is just cross your fingers and hope interest rates keep falling. Not doing anything is just as risky as taking an all-in position either way. So what we’ve seen a lot of people do is somewhere meet in the middle where they try to get to a risk rate neutral stance where half the debts floating, half the debts fixed. If rates go up, great, you have protection in place. If rates keep falling, great, half the debt keeps on floating down lower, too,” said Josh Cannington with StoneX.

Carrington says it is important to make use of market tools, like swap options, which could allow farmers to choose which risks they want to take.

Related Stories
Cattle imports from Mexico remain stalled amid the New World screwworm outbreak. At the same time, Tyson closures add pressure on Nebraska producers and markets ahead of the USDA’s upcoming Cattle on Feed Report.
USTR Jamieson Greer signals a narrower trade deal with China, adding more market uncertainty. The Farm Bureau also supports reviewing China’s missed trade commitments under the Phase One.
Southern producers head into 2026 with thin margins, tighter credit, and rising agronomic risks despite scattered yield improvements.
Credit stress is building for row-crop farms despite steady land values and slight price improvements.
The Lexington shutdown pushes national slaughter capacity utilization nearer long-run averages, underscoring how tight cattle supplies are reshaping packer operations.
RFD-TV Farm Legal and Tax Expert Roger McEowen explains the basics of Low-Risk Credit in Farming, and how an understanding of the farm credit landscape lets producers tactfully approach debt.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Texas Ag Commissioner Sid Miller warns horse owners after EHV-1 cases linked to the Waco WPRA Finals. Horses linked to recent Waco events should be isolated and closely monitored, as early action is critical to stopping the spread of EHV-1.
One trader said the products entering the U.S. are primarily grind and trim, noting that the volume and type of beef, on its own, should not cause a major disruption. However, he says fund traders are reacting heavily to headlines rather than market realities.
Olivia Bury, AgriSafe Network Behavioral Health Coordinator, shares about AgriSafe Network’s resources created to support farmers and rural Americans.
Jael Cruikshank, the newly elected Western Region Vice President, shares her story on this week’s FFA Today.
Farm legal expert Roger McEowen reviews the history of the Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule and outlines how shifting definitions across multiple administrations have created regulatory confusion for landowners.
Leslee Oden, president of the National Turkey Federation, and Jay Jandrain, CEO of Butterball, joined us in the studio on Monday to discuss the history, significance, and expectations surrounding this year’s presidential turkey pardon.