Ethanol Blend Rate Breaks Ceiling as E15 Expands

Higher ethanol blend rates translate directly into stronger, more durable corn demand if regulatory momentum holds.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol demand reached a new milestone in October, as ethanol accounted for 11.06 percent of the nation’s gasoline supply — the first monthly blend rate above 11 percent on record, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The record underscores growing fuel demand for ethanol and challenges long-standing assumptions that blending cannot exceed 10 percent.

The Renewable Fuels Association says expanded availability of E15 and flex fuels such as E85 is driving the increase. The 12-month average blend rate also reached a record 10.48 percent in October, signaling sustained growth rather than a one-month anomaly. Iowa continues to lead adoption, with E15 representing roughly 25 percent of gasoline sales in November — nearly double early-2025 levels — while California’s recent E15 approval opens a major new market.

RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper credits summer emergency fuel waivers and lower pump prices for accelerating adoption, while emphasizing the need for permanent year-round E15 approval and strong EPA renewable fuel standards. At an 11 percent blend rate, annual ethanol use would reach roughly 15 billion gallons.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Higher ethanol blend rates translate directly into stronger, more durable corn demand if regulatory momentum holds.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Lewis Williamson of HTS Commodities joined us with an update on the historic winter storm impacts and his outlook on today’s ag markets.
New rule speeds leasing and permitting for federal oil and gas development
Mike Knotts with the Tennessee Electric Cooperative Association joined us with the latest on storm impacts, power restoration, and safety considerations following the ice storm.
Year-round E15 remains on the table, but procedural caution and competing regional interests pushed action into a slower, negotiated path.
Strong production and rising stocks may pressure ethanol margins unless demand or exports continue to improve.
Without additional support, many soybean operations will continue to face financial stress as they prepare for the 2026 crop.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Fertilizer still consumes an unusually large share of crop value.
Pollination costs remain volatile, raising planning risk for specialty crop producers.
The USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum highlights modest price support from tighter supplies across cotton, grains, dairy, livestock, and sugar into 2026.
Farm Bureau Economist Faith Parum discusses the latest Farm Bill proposal and the path ahead for Congress and U.S. agriculture.
President Donald Trump signed an executive order this week to accelerate domestic production of phosphorus and glyphosate, signaling that farm input availability is now treated as a national security risk.
The global rice surplus outweighs tighter U.S. supplies, pressuring prices.