Ethanol Demand Strengthens Despite Mixed Production Signals Nationwide

Stronger fuel demand supports corn usage despite a steady production pace.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS)Ethanol markets showed stronger fuel demand this week, providing support for corn use even as longer-term production growth slowed slightly.

Data from the Energy Information Administration analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association shows U.S. ethanol production rose 0.7 percent to 1.12 million barrels per day — about 46.96 million gallons daily. Output ran 3.1 percent above last year and nearly 5 percent above the three-year average. However, the four-week average slipped to 1.07 million barrels per day, equal to 16.51 billion gallons annually, signaling plants are not accelerating run rates aggressively yet.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Stronger fuel demand supports corn usage despite a steady production pace.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Gasoline demand jumped 5.4 percent to 8.75 million barrels per day — a key indicator of blending demand. Refiner and blender ethanol use increased 3 percent, and exports surged 29 percent to 177,000 barrels per day. Those gains point to improving domestic and foreign fuel consumption.

Ethanol inventories climbed 1.4 percent to 25.6 million barrels, though stocks remain below year-ago levels.

Related Stories
U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins said permanent access to the higher ethanol blend would provide farmers with much-needed certainty while supporting domestic crop demand.
Larger grain stocks increase supply pressure, but strong fall disappearance — especially for corn and sorghum — suggests demand remains an important offset.
Record corn and sorghum crops boost feed grain supplies, while reduced soybean and cotton production tighten outlooks for oilseeds and fiber markets.
Food prices increased in December, but not as much as expected, according to the latest Consumer Price Index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics.
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined us to provide analysis on the January WASDE report and expectations for grain markets going forward.
Market reaction was bearish for corn and soybeans, with analysts noting that abundant supplies amid tepid demand could keep price pressure on agricultural commodities.
Rising adoption of GLP-1 drugs may gradually reshape food demand, with potential downstream effects on protein markets and consumer purchasing patterns.
Traders are keeping a close eye on China’s soybean purchases as markets track export sales, shipments, and progress toward the ‘magical’ 12 million ton target promised last year.
Winter Weather, Drought Shape Early 2026 Farm Conditions

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Corn and soybean exports continue to anchor weekly inspection totals, with China maintaining a visible role, while wheat and sorghum remain more dependent on regional and seasonal demand shifts.
Rail continues to carry a larger share of the grain load, increasing sensitivity to rail capacity, labor, and pricing conditions.
Meat stocks rose seasonally but remain below last year overall, while tighter butter inventories could support dairy prices, and belly stocks warrant close watch for pork markets.
Payment totals alone do not show financial stress — production costs and net losses complete the picture.
Year-round E15 remains on the table, but procedural caution and competing regional interests pushed action into a slower, negotiated path.
A mid-January winter storm delivered snow, ice, and extreme cold to a broad swath of the U.S., disrupting transportation, stressing livestock systems, and adding cost and complexity to winter farm operations as producers look toward spring.