LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Ethanol production pulled back in mid-March, signaling softer near-term demand while rising inventories add pressure on margins and corn use expectations.
According to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association, production dropped 2.9 percent to 1.09 million barrels per day — about 45.9 million gallons daily — a six-week low. The four-week average eased to 17.02 billion gallons annually. At the same time, ethanol stocks rose 3.2 percent to 26.4 million barrels, the highest since April 2025, while gasoline demand declined 5.6 percent, weighing on blending needs.
Operationally, weaker refiner inputs and a 7.4 percent drop in exports point to softer movement across domestic and global markets.
In the longer term, Texas A&M AgriLife economist Dr. Mark Welch notes that ethanol demand remains tied to policy and fuel trends. Corn used for fuel has grown to about 5.6 billion bushels — roughly one-third of total production — but declining gasoline use could put pressure on demand. Expanded year-round E15 could offset that, potentially adding up to 2 billion bushels of corn demand by 2030 if adoption accelerates.
Looking ahead, ethanol markets hinge on demand recovery and policy clarity around E15.
Heavier weights and strong late-year slaughter supported December production, but lower annual totals highlight ongoing supply tightness heading into 2026.
January 26, 2026 11:19 AM
·
Strong production and rising stocks may pressure ethanol margins unless demand or exports continue to improve.
January 26, 2026 10:00 AM
·
Without additional support, many soybean operations will continue to face financial stress as they prepare for the 2026 crop.
January 26, 2026 09:41 AM
·
The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and Public Lands Council published a joint press release regarding the advancement of legislation to delist the Mexican Gray Wolf from the Endangered Species Act.
January 23, 2026 05:05 PM
Placements and marketings beat expectations, but declining on-feed totals and feeder constraints keep the supply story supportive for cattle prices into 2026. Dr. Derrell Peel, with Oklahoma State University, joined us to break down cattle-on-feed numbers and provide his broader market outlook.
January 23, 2026 04:40 PM
·
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer joined us to break down the recent Fifth Circuit Court decision overturning a prior Tax Court decision on self-employment tax for limited partners, the ruling’s impact on farmers, and potential next steps in Congress.
January 23, 2026 02:00 PM
·
