LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Ethanol production pulled back in mid-March, signaling softer near-term demand while rising inventories add pressure on margins and corn use expectations.
According to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association, production dropped 2.9 percent to 1.09 million barrels per day — about 45.9 million gallons daily — a six-week low. The four-week average eased to 17.02 billion gallons annually. At the same time, ethanol stocks rose 3.2 percent to 26.4 million barrels, the highest since April 2025, while gasoline demand declined 5.6 percent, weighing on blending needs.
Operationally, weaker refiner inputs and a 7.4 percent drop in exports point to softer movement across domestic and global markets.
In the longer term, Texas A&M AgriLife economist Dr. Mark Welch notes that ethanol demand remains tied to policy and fuel trends. Corn used for fuel has grown to about 5.6 billion bushels — roughly one-third of total production — but declining gasoline use could put pressure on demand. Expanded year-round E15 could offset that, potentially adding up to 2 billion bushels of corn demand by 2030 if adoption accelerates.
Looking ahead, ethanol markets hinge on demand recovery and policy clarity around E15.
Corn growers are turning to ethanol, E15 expansion, and export markets to help absorb record supplies and stabilize prices. Farm leaders discuss low-carbon ethanol demand, flex-fuel vehicle challenges, input costs, and the role of USMCA as producers look for market relief in the year ahead.
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