Ethanol Output Slips as Demand and Stocks Shift

Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Ethanol producers saw a noticeable slowdown last week, a signal that fuel demand and blending trends remain uneven heading into winter. The latest EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association shows production falling 4.3% to 1.08 million barrels per day — lower than a year ago but still slightly above the three-year average. The four-week production pace held steady at 1.10 million b/d, equal to a 16.9-billion-gallon annualized rate.

Stocks tightened overall, dipping 1.9% to 22.2 million barrels, with inventories shrinking in every region except the East Coast and the Rockies. Gasoline supplied — a key proxy for consumer demand — rose to a 10-week high of 9.03 million b/d, though still trailing last year by nearly 4%. Meanwhile, refiner-blender net inputs of ethanol slipped 1.0% to a five-week low, marking slightly weaker domestic blending activity.

Exports were the week’s standout, jumping nearly 47% to an estimated 157,000 b/d — the strongest signal of external demand and the highest in more than a year. With no recent imports reported, the export bump helped offset softer domestic movement.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Kerry Hartwig from Sukup Manufacturing previews the grain management solutions they plan to share with producers at the upcoming Commodity Classic in San Antonio.
The USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum highlights modest price support from tighter supplies across cotton, grains, dairy, livestock, and sugar into 2026.
The global rice surplus outweighs tighter U.S. supplies, pressuring prices.
A weaker dollar supports export demand and may strengthen crop prices.
Smaller supplies could support cotton prices despite weak demand.
Biofuel and corn producers await proposal as Renewable Fuels Association pushes for expanded ethanol access.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Restored base acres strengthen cotton risk protection.
Agriculture Freedom Zones reflect rising concern that data center growth must not strain rural grids or displace productive farmland.
Record Choice grading levels are changing how beef quality premiums are valued.
Be sure to catch Kim Collingsworth on Gaither Gospel Hour’s new special, “His Gift, My Story,” tonight, Friday, Feb. 27, at 6 p.m. ET, on RFD Network and streaming on RFD+
Britt Hilton with the Oklahoma Farm Bureau joined us to discuss current conditions, producer impacts, and the road to recovery following the Ranger Road Fire.
National FFA Southern Region Vice President T. Wayne William talks about Wear Blue Day, the history of the blue jacket, and why the tradition continues to inspire pride and connection among FFA members nationwide.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.