Ethanol Output Slips as Stocks Build Demand Falls

Strong production and rising stocks may pressure ethanol margins unless demand or exports continue to improve.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. ethanol markets softened in mid-January as production declined and inventories climbed, signaling weaker near-term demand even as output remained historically strong. New data show pressure building on margins as gasoline consumption slowed sharply.

Ethanol production fell 6.4 percent to 1.12 million barrels per day for the week ending January 16. Despite the weekly drop, output was still 1.8 percent higher than a year ago and nearly 15 percent above the three-year average. The four-week average production rate edged higher to an annualized 17.42 billion gallons, underscoring continued run strength.

Inventories increased 5.2 percent to 25.7 million barrels, the highest level in 40 weeks. Stocks built across most regions and now sit slightly above the three-year average, adding to near-term supply pressure.

Demand signals weakened. Gasoline supplied fell 5.7 percent to a three-year low, pulling implied ethanol demand lower even as refiner and blender ethanol use rose modestly. Exports provided a bright spot, surging more than 80 percent week over week.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong production and rising stocks may pressure ethanol margins unless demand or exports continue to improve.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Related Stories
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney explains how geopolitical developments in the Middle East can create energy-driven pressures that impact the supply chain and reshape demand for certain ag products.
USDA’s March WASDE report leaves U.S. corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks unchanged while adjusting global production estimates for South America.
U.S. Agriculture Faces Mixed Weather, Market Pressures
Strong exports and production support ongoing corn demand.
Strong consumer demand supports livestock market outlook.
Surging energy markets are quickly becoming a cost story for U.S. agriculture as crude oil climbs on supply fears tied to the Middle East conflict.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

HTS Commodities’ Lewis Williamson provides updates on how growers are preparing for spring planting in an unpredictable agricultural landscape.
Leadership continuity signals a steady focus on family farm advocacy.
India trade tensions may affect the U.S. export outlook.
Tariff revenues rarely flow directly back to farmers.
Farm legal expert Roger McEowen discusses a new rail antitrust case in Kansas and its potential implications for farmers as rail upgrades signal continued export-driven demand for logistics.
Strike risk adds volatility to already tight markets.