Ethanol Production Rebounds as Demand Signals Turn Mixed

Strong ethanol production and export trends continue to support corn demand despite seasonal fuel consumption softness.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol production moved higher late in December, offering continued support for corn demand even as fuel consumption softened at year’s end. Output rebounded to 1.12 million barrels per day during the week ending December 26, equivalent to 47.0 million gallons daily, according to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association. Production ran slightly above last year and well ahead of the three-year average, reinforcing a historically strong grind pace.

Despite the rebound, inventories continued to build. Ethanol stocks rose to 22.9 million barrels, driven primarily by Midwest increases, though total stocks remained below both last year and longer-term averages. That suggests supply is growing but not yet burdensome.

Gasoline supplied — a proxy for ethanol blending demand — declined week over week, reflecting seasonal travel slowdowns. However, demand remained solid compared to both last year and the three-year average, signaling underlying strength rather than demand erosion. Refiner and blender ethanol usage also stayed above historical norms despite a modest weekly pullback.

Exports cooled sharply after setting a recent record, but overseas shipments remain historically strong, helping balance domestic supply.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong ethanol production and export trends continue to support corn demand despite seasonal fuel consumption softness.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Incremental trade clarity with India could support select U.S. ag exports, but major gains hinge on future market-access talks.
The phone call injected optimism into the soybean market, but actual Chinese buying and its timing will ultimately determine the extent of U.S. agricultural export benefits.
Quick to prep and packed with flavor, this dish is a bold way to kick up any weekend spread.
Mexico has fallen behind by several hundred thousand acre-feet in required water deliveries to the United States, a shortfall that has had devastating consequences across the Rio Grande Valley.
U.S. Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas discusses expected changes to the 45Z tax credit and what they could mean for agriculture and rural America.
Purdue University Professor of Agricultural Economics Dr. Jim Mintert shares a closer look at farmer sentiment and the key issues shaping the agricultural economy in January.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Low prices are painful now, but production response could support stronger milk markets later in 2026.
The U.S. trade deal with Argentina creates new export opportunities for U.S. livestock and crop producers but also raises competitive concerns.
Policies aimed at ground beef prices may primarily reshape dairy incentives rather than deliver lasting consumer savings.
More flexible export financing could strengthen demand in emerging markets and support higher U.S. agricultural exports.
Regulatory uncertainty could slow the growth of fiber and grain hemp unless implementation is delayed.
As cattle markets show renewed strength, producers gathering at CattleCon are focused on protecting operations, managing risk, and positioning for opportunity in the year ahead.