Ethanol Production Rebounds as Demand Signals Turn Mixed

Strong ethanol production and export trends continue to support corn demand despite seasonal fuel consumption softness.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol production moved higher late in December, offering continued support for corn demand even as fuel consumption softened at year’s end. Output rebounded to 1.12 million barrels per day during the week ending December 26, equivalent to 47.0 million gallons daily, according to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association. Production ran slightly above last year and well ahead of the three-year average, reinforcing a historically strong grind pace.

Despite the rebound, inventories continued to build. Ethanol stocks rose to 22.9 million barrels, driven primarily by Midwest increases, though total stocks remained below both last year and longer-term averages. That suggests supply is growing but not yet burdensome.

Gasoline supplied — a proxy for ethanol blending demand — declined week over week, reflecting seasonal travel slowdowns. However, demand remained solid compared to both last year and the three-year average, signaling underlying strength rather than demand erosion. Refiner and blender ethanol usage also stayed above historical norms despite a modest weekly pullback.

Exports cooled sharply after setting a recent record, but overseas shipments remain historically strong, helping balance domestic supply.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong ethanol production and export trends continue to support corn demand despite seasonal fuel consumption softness.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Escalating U.S.–China tensions threaten soybean demand as farm finances are stretched further.
Rex Gray, Corn Product Manager for Golden Harvest, discusses how the company works side-by-side with farmers to develop strong-performing hybrids built to fit their acres.
Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.
ock NH3 early, track China’s Oct. 15 call and any U.S. Russia-UAN action, stay nimble on urea, and budget cautiously for high-priced phosphate.
Expect business-as-usual for most container exports.
CoBank Lead Grains Economist Tanner Ehmke joins us to share insight and concerns over current grain storage capacity as export demand lags.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer shares his perspective on the uncertain outlook of federal farm relief and the Farm Bill, which may not materialize until the government shutdown ends.
As the government shutdown pushes the farm economy closer to the brink, Sens. Grassley and Ernst of Iowa are raising their voices for agriculture.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Livestock profits are propping up overall sentiment, but crop producers remain cautious amid tight margins and uncertain policy signals.
RaboResearch says China’s pivot from mass production to innovation-driven growth could reshape global pesticide supply chains — and influence prices and product access for U.S. farmers in the coming years.
Expect modest relief on several produce lines, mixed protein trends into holiday buying, and softer veg-oil costs — a good week to sharpen forward buys selectively.
A strong corn export pull is supportive of bids; soybeans need steady vessel programs or fresh sales to firm cash.
USDA will meet part of November SNAP benefits under court direction, citing insufficient funds for full payments.
An import lag for ground beef will likely look different than last year’s egg shortage. The difference comes down to biosecurity and market flexibility.